Macron’s defiant show of force in parliament exposes a weakened president Analysis by Politico

Politico has published an article saying that old-school politicking is coming back to bite the man who blew up traditional politics in France. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to bypass parliament and impose his deeply unpopular pensions reform has revealed an uncompromising and weakened leader who now faces severe backlash from emboldened opposition lawmakers and protesters.

Macron had vowed to abandon his top-down approach to politics and work with opposition parties during his second term. But when it comes to old-style politicking, Macron’s troops still have a lot to learn.

Despite intense lobbying efforts with MPs and frantic meetings at the Elysée on Thursday and in the weeks leading up to the decisive moment, the French president and his stalwart lieutenant Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne faced the likelihood of a defeat in parliament and decided instead to invoke a controversial constitutional tool — article 49.3 — to bypass a vote.

“My political interest would have been to submit to a vote … But I consider that the financial, economic risks are too great at this stage,” Macron privately told ministers according to a participant at the meeting.

Macron’s flagship pensions reform aims to increase the legal age of retirement to 64 from 62 and extend contributions for a full pension in an effort to balance the accounts of France’s state pensions system. Macron’s Renaissance party lost its absolute majority in the National Assembly in parliamentary elections last year, but the government was able to pass legislation in recent months with the support of the conservative party Les Républicains. It appears, however, that in the nail-biting run-up to the vote, there were concerns the president wasn’t able to rally enough troops in favor of the bill.

Arriving in parliament on Thursday, Borne faced scenes of anger and unrest in the National Assembly as she made her announcement triggering article 49.3. Far-left lawmakers from the France Unbowed party booed and chanted the national hymn the Marseillaise as far-right National Rally MPs shouted “Resign! Resign!” The speaker of the house was forced to suspend debates to allow Borne to make her speech.

“We can’t take the risk of seeing 175 hours of parliamentary debate come to nothing,” Borne said.

After the announcement, opposition MPs vowed to continue the battle against the reform, either in parliament, by supporting a motion of no-confidence, or in the streets.

The leader of the far-right National Rally, Marine Le Pen, slammed the move as a “personal failure” for Macron. “It’s his reform, he’s the one who proposed it and defended it during his campaign,” she told reporters at the National Assembly.

Spontaneous protests erupted Thursday evening in several cities across France, including Paris, where thousands of protestors descended on the Place de la Concorde after the move, clashing with police and setting fire to scaffolding. Trade unions called for a day of protest on March 23, undeterred by Macron’s decision to push through the legislation.

Article 49.3, ‘a denial of democracy’

Invoking article 49.3 is widely seen as a perilous move for the government as it allows MPs to put forward a motion of no-confidence within 24 hours and risks radicalizing protest movements in France. Trade unions have already shown great unity and led almost weekly marches and strikes, bringing out hundreds of thousands of citizens to the streets. In Paris, a strike by garbage collectors has seen an estimated 7,000 tons of garbage left on the street.

While the French constitution does allow governments to bypass parliament under certain conditions, its use is increasingly seen as undemocratic in France amid social tensions and the growing mistrust of politicians.

“The government’s use of the 49.3 procedure reflects the failure of this presidential minority,” Charles de Courson, a longtime independent lawmaker, told the BFMTV news channel.

“They are not just a minority in the National Assembly, they are a minority in the whole country. The denial of democracy continues,” he said.

Speaking ahead of the vote, Frédéric Dabi, general director of the IFOP polling institute, said that opinions on invoking article 49.3 — as opposed to passing a tight vote in parliament — are “radically different.”

“Public opinions on the 49.3 article have changed … it is regarded as a tool to brutalize the National Assembly: it’s now seen as authoritarian instead of merely authoritative. People want more transparency, more democracy today,” he said.

But the show of force also exposes a weakened president, who after having lost a majority in parliament and amid low popularity ratings, was unable to turn the tide of public opinion in France.

Surviving now, and later

In the short term, the government will have to survive several motions of no-confidence that are expected to be voted on Monday. Macron’s government has faced down motions of no confidence in the past but the stakes are much higher this time around.

“It’s maybe the first time that a motion of no-confidence may overthrow the government,” Green MP Julien Bayou told reporters, adding that the government was “prepared to wreak havoc” in the country.

Longer term, the move destroys prospects of a closer alliance between Macron’s Renaissance party and the conservative Les Républicains following a string of ad-hoc deals in recent months. In a worrying sign for Macron’s second term, as the debates on the pensions reform reached a climax, the leadership of the conservative party could not muster its own faithful despite concessions on the bill from the ruling party.

The great irony for Macron — needing partners and not finding them — is that he is the man who upended France’s political landscape by crushing the traditional left-wing and right-wing parties in 2017.

The dilemma for Macron is how he will get anything done in the next four yours of his presidency, given the reinvigorated opposition he is sure to face in a parliament dominated by the far left and the far right, and without reliable coalition partners.

Perhaps the only silver lining for Macron is the view from abroad.

“On the international scene, it’s a sign that France can make reforms, even if, frankly, many may think we are having a nervous breakdown over something so small, given that the government has made so many concessions [on the bill],” said Chloé Morin, a writer and political analyst ahead of the vote.

“Everybody knows that [reforming pensions] in France is difficult …That’s what’s at stake for Macron: he is a president who is building his legacy,” she said.