Media: Investigations show no direct Russian involvement in Baltic sabotage But NATO tightens vigilance

According to officials familiar with the investigations, no proof has been found that Moscow ordered or orchestrated the destruction of critical subsea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, despite rising suspicions within NATO. 

The alliance has, however, significantly increased its operations in the Baltic Sea to deter potential attacks and safeguard pipelines and cables, with Baltic Sentry emerging as its key mission, Caliber.Az reports via WSJ.

Launched in January, Baltic Sentry sees NATO deploying task forces to patrol the waters, aiming to prevent further damage to undersea infrastructure after a series of incidents involving ships, many with ties to Russia, dragging anchors and damaging cables and pipelines.

“We are functioning as security cameras at sea,” said Belgian Navy Commander Erik Kockx, whose usual role involves clearing unexploded mines in the area. His task force was recently involved in investigating a tanker associated with Russia’s illicit fuel trade that was acting suspiciously near a pipeline.

Despite the lack of direct evidence linking Russia to the sabotage, NATO countries remain wary. Baltic Sentry now involves at least 10 ships under NATO command, along with additional assets from the navies, coast guards, and police forces of Baltic states. The alliance has also deployed surveillance planes from the U.S., France, Germany, and the U.K. to monitor activities from the sky. U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe, highlighted the operation’s importance, stating, “Success translates into a lack of action.”

A significant aspect of the operation is the use of new technology, including artificial intelligence and undersea drones. NATO’s new Centre for Critical Undersea Infrastructure recently created a unified map of the Baltic Sea floor, helping to monitor traffic and detect unusual behavior. “If you know what the norm is, you can more easily identify what’s not normal,” said Lt. Cmdr. Dani Johannessen of the Royal Norwegian Navy, who commands a mine hunter involved in the mission.

The arrival of a U.S. Marine Corps detachment last month, alongside Finnish forces, adds a new layer to the operation. Their training focuses on small-island tactics, a skillset that could prove valuable in other regions, including the Pacific.

While patrolling for potential saboteurs, NATO ships like the Royal Dutch Navy’s Luymes, typically used for hydrographic surveys, are also assisting with infrastructure checks. The ship is equipped with advanced sonar and submersible probes, as well as machine guns for self-defense. Although NATO's efforts may not always yield visible results, Kockx noted that "we’ve seen behavior get better," highlighting that just the presence of patrols has made ships more cautious.

As the operation progresses, officials acknowledge the complexities of coordinating multiple national forces and agencies. “There’s a complicated mix of authorities,” Cavoli explained. However, with the unified efforts of NATO members, response times have improved dramatically, with suspicious activities now being investigated within an hour, compared to 17 hours last October.

While the lack of direct action on the part of NATO may seem inconclusive, Capt. Niels Markussen of the Royal Danish Navy, director of the NATO Shipping Centre, summed up the goal: “It is deterrence we are working on.” With increasing vigilance and cooperation, NATO hopes to prevent further damage to subsea infrastructure and maintain stability in the Baltic region.

By Aghakazim Guliyev