Media: Preparation for NATO summit in The Hague is XXL, but summit conclusions likely XXS

With the NATO summit in The Hague scheduled for the end of June, preparations are well underway, though expectations for significant outcomes remain cautious.

With just five weeks to go, uncertainty surrounds key questions about whether US President Donald Trump will attend and whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a regular guest in previous years, will receive an official invitation, Caliber.Az reports, citing NOS.

Dutch Prime Minister and NATO chair Mark Rutte remains optimistic about the summit’s success. However, behind the scenes at NATO headquarters, diplomats express nervousness and concern, reflecting the complexities of current geopolitical tensions and internal alliance dynamics.

One key difference from previous summits is the anticipated brevity of the event. Officials have made clear that the summit will be kept as short as possible to accommodate Trump’s known impatience with lengthy meetings and to minimise any public discord within the alliance.

The communiqué — the official statement summarising agreements — is expected to be “hyper-short,” likely no longer than three paragraphs. This is a stark contrast to last year’s Washington summit communiqué, which ran to 44 paragraphs, and the Vilnius summit the year before, which featured 90 paragraphs. The reason for this drastic reduction is the lack of unanimous agreement among NATO’s 32 members, particularly with Trump’s return complicating consensus-building.

Diplomats warn there is even a possibility that no formal conclusions will be issued. According to Bob Deen of the Clingendael Institute, a brief or absent communiqué can be a strategic move to maintain a united front without highlighting divisions.

One contentious issue is the traditional wording describing Russia as the “most significant and direct threat” to NATO’s security. While this phrasing has been standard since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, its inclusion in this summit’s conclusions is uncertain. The US reportedly fears such language could hinder peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, while others see signs of a US shift toward rapprochement with Moscow.

Rutte has downplayed the focus on Russia in public statements, instead emphasising the need to secure defence funding and support for Ukraine. He also reiterated the goal for NATO allies to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2032 — a “Hague investment plan” aimed at strengthening the alliance’s military capabilities.

The summit’s success may ultimately hinge less on detailed agreements and more on showing alliance unity amid a challenging geopolitical landscape. For now, The Hague is preparing for a compact summit with the possibility of equally concise conclusions.

By Aghakazim Guliyev