Media: Russian forces may have misidentified Azerbaijani airliner, shot it down

Two US military officials said US intelligence indicates that Russian forces may have misidentified the Azerbaijani airliner en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, as a drone and shot it down. 

According to a US official, preliminary evidence suggests that the plane may have been struck by a Russian anti-aircraft system. Two US military officials told NBC News that US intelligence indicates that Russian forces may have misidentified the Azerbaijani airliner as a drone and shot it down. The officials explained that the aircraft’s irregular flight pattern and altitude likely contributed to this confusion. They emphasized, however, that the investigation remains ongoing, Caliber.Az reports.

Matthew Borie, chief intelligence officer at Osprey Flight Solutions, also stated that "the flight was likely shot down by a Russian air defence system," noting that at the time of the crash, Russian forces were responding to a Ukrainian drone attack. He added that Russia had been shooting down drones during this period.

Russian authorities have cautioned against speculation about the cause of the crash, but on December 27, Rosaviatsia, Russia's aviation authority, described the situation around Grozny, Chechnya, as “very complicated.” The authority mentioned the presence of “Ukrainian combat drones” in the area, as Chechnya is located near the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, Rosaviatsia reported that dense fog at Grozny airport meant there was no visibility at around 1,600 feet. Despite this, the pilot chose to divert to Aktau after two failed attempts to land in Grozny.

In response to the incident, Azerbaijan Airlines announced that it had suspended flights from Baku to five other Russian airports, following the earlier suspension of flights to Grozny and Makhachkala, which was implemented on December 25. The airline confirmed that these suspensions would remain in place until the investigation is complete, according to a statement shared on the airline’s Telegram channel.

An investigation into the tragic crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight in Kazakhstan earlier this week has revealed that the incident followed what the airline describes as "physical and technical external interference." 

The Embraer 190 aircraft, en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, killing 38 of the 67 people on board.

By Vafa Guliyeva