Media: Trump faces greater challenge with Putin than he did with Hamas

Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, may prove to be a challenging opponent for the newly elected US President Donald Trump in the process of potential negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.

Trump’s presidency, marked by bold rhetoric and an unorthodox diplomatic approach, showed in the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire that bombast can work but is rarely enough on its own, Caliber.Az reports via Spectator.

Trump’s warning of “hell unleashed” by 20 January, his inauguration day, played a part in finalizing the deal, though the groundwork had already been laid by President Biden’s team. As Trump prepares to tackle the war in Ukraine, the question arises: can he replicate this approach against Vladimir Putin, or will the Russian leader prove an insurmountable challenge?

Putin represents a more complex adversary than Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, who had much to lose by rejecting Trump’s overtures. Putin, by contrast, wields considerable leverage. Despite heavy battlefield losses—including 700,000 casualties and significant equipment destruction—Putin controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. This positions him strongly at the negotiating table, where Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains at a disadvantage.

Trump’s declared intention to meet Putin signals his preference for personal dealmaking, but his earlier promises, such as ending the war on “day one,” have already been tempered. His envoy, Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, suggested a 100-day timetable, yet even this may be optimistic given Putin’s hardened stance. Putin’s key demands—retaining occupied territory and barring Ukraine from NATO—remain major obstacles.

Unlike Netanyahu, who was politically cornered, Putin is supported by powerful allies like China, North Korea, and Iran, and remains pragmatic in his goals. While he justifies his invasion as a defensive move against NATO expansion, Western nations view it as imperialism. Trump’s return to the White House could offer Putin a chance to end a costly war while preserving gains, provided Trump concedes to his core demands.

However, if Trump refuses to guarantee Ukraine’s exclusion from NATO, it’s doubtful Putin will seek a resolution. With time potentially on his side, Putin may prefer to continue his “special operation,” banking on further territorial gains and weakened Ukrainian resistance.

Trump’s challenge will be convincing Putin to negotiate without undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty or NATO’s credibility. Bombast alone will not suffice; achieving a deal will demand strategy and pragmatism—qualities Putin himself is known to value.

By Aghakazim Guliyev