Axios: Israel raises alarm over Iranian missile drill, warns of possible strike

Israeli officials have warned the Trump administration that a missile exercise conducted by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could be a cover for preparations for a potential strike on Israel, Axios reports, citing three Israeli and U.S. sources familiar with the matter.

The concerns were conveyed over the weekend amid heightened Israeli sensitivity to Iranian military activity, two years after Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Israeli sources said that while current intelligence primarily indicates force movements inside Iran, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) now operate with a significantly lower tolerance for risk.

One Israeli source said similar concerns were raised approximately six weeks ago, when intelligence identified Iranian missile movements, though no attack followed. “The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise,” the source said.

U.S. intelligence agencies, however, currently have no indication that an Iranian attack is imminent, an American official told Axios.

Behind the scenes, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir spoke by phone on December 20 with the head of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), Adm. Brad Cooper, to express Israel’s concerns regarding the IRGC exercise, which began several days ago. According to the sources, Zamir warned that recent Iranian missile movements and other operational steps could be intended to conceal preparations for a surprise attack.

Zamir urged close coordination between Israeli and U.S. forces on defensive measures. Adm. Cooper travelled to Tel Aviv on December 21, where he met with Zamir and senior IDF officials to assess the situation and discuss potential scenarios.

The IDF declined to comment, while CENTCOM did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Sources stressed that the greatest risk at this stage is miscalculation, with both sides potentially interpreting defensive or preparatory measures as indications of an imminent attack and acting preemptively.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on December 29 in Miami. According to Israeli sources, Netanyahu plans to discuss Iran’s efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile capabilities, as well as the possibility of renewed Israeli strikes against Iran in 2026. NBC News first reported Netanyahu’s intention to raise the issue.

Israeli intelligence officials have identified early signs of a renewed Iranian missile buildup, with greater motivation than observed since the 12-day war in June. At the end of that conflict, Iran was reportedly left with around 1,500 missiles, down from approximately 3,000 before the war, and about 200 launchers compared to the previous 400.

While Iran has begun taking steps to rebuild its missile forces, Israeli sources say it has not yet returned to pre-war levels. Israeli military intelligence and the Mossad do not believe the current pace of Iran’s rebuilding creates an immediate need for military action within the next two to three months, but warn the issue could become more urgent later in the year.

By Vugar Khalilov