Moscow-Ankara: Nothing personal - only national interests Analysis by Maxim Petrov

Türkiye continues successfully manoeuvring between the geopolitical tasks of its partners, benefiting from trade with Russia and at the same time acting as a military ally of the US, political analysts around the world say today.

Foreign policy scholar and columnist for the Turkish news website Independent Gokce Khubar said that although the Russian president has blamed the West for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and announced a partial mobilisation, Türkiye is firmly sticking to its special position, which it took immediately after February 24, 2022, the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict.

"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan avoids condemning Russia, preferring to remain neutral, which has been stipulated by a number of geopolitical and geostrategic reasons," the analyst emphasises.

 
What are the reasons? Türkiye has become a powerful country economically and militarily over the past 20 years, that is, during the era of President Erdogan. The country is not a simple NATO member anymore, fulfilling the will of Washington, but plays a completely independent role in global politics. When the US refused to support Türkiye during its conflict with Russia in 2015 due to controversial interests in Syria (a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian military aircraft during that period, and the countries were on the verge of an armed confrontation). Ankara drew conclusions and made a decision, despite the situation, to cooperate more closely with Moscow on some issues, including the issue of dividing spheres of influence in Syria. When Washington did not want to transfer Patriot missile defence systems to Ankara on Turkish terms, the Turkish government signed a contract with Russia to purchase missile systems of the same class - S-400, which, as expected, cooled Ankara's relations with NATO allies.

The economic aspects of interaction with Moscow are also of great importance. Trade turnover between Russia and Türkiye is growing rapidly. Russia supplies up to half of the required volume of gas and about a quarter of the required oil to Türkiye, builds the Akkuyu nuclear power plant with a project cost of $22-25 billion, and, apparently, the terms of this contract are very beneficial for Ankara. The fact is that Russia allocated part of the funds required to build the nuclear power plant in the form of a loan, and the sides agreed that this interest-free loan would be issued to Turkish companies involved in the construction of the facility.

Financial Times shows all these factors in the relationship between Ankara and Moscow, suggesting that Russia allegedly transferred $25 billion to the Turkish Treasury and Finance Ministry secretly. Financial Times analysts think that some money, and probably the entire amount, has been invested in the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant - an unprecedented step, which means that the project may be fully funded by the Kremlin itself and Ankara is unlikely to conclude such large-scale and such favourable deal.

 
Despite the impressive growth in industrial production, there are certain economic problems in Türkiye. The Turkish lira is falling compared to the US dollar, inflation is also felt. In this regard, it is possible to say that Russian investments at the moment, in a certain sense, stabilise its exchange rate, and, in fact, are Moscow's support for Erdogan's government. According to Reuters, while commenting on the country's economy last week, the Turkish president was laconic: "Our central bank's reserves have begun growing. This allows us to operate comfortably in terms of foreign exchange reserves. In this regard, many friendly countries are currently rendering the necessary support."

Of course, in this case, Moscow primarily pursues its own interests. Türkiye is turning into the biggest Russian financial hub, which theoretically allows bypassing some Western sanctions. It is necessary to withdraw Russian capital somewhere, Russian tourists must travel somewhere, and it is necessary to support foreign trade somehow. So, amid endless Western sanctions, Türkiye is of exceptional importance for Russia today.

Nevertheless, some Russian media outlets note that often Russia's partners, including Türkiye, are guided by national interests, rather than by friendly relations. According to Bloomberg,  Türkiye Is Bankasi, a big private bank in Türkiye, refused to work with the Russian Mir payment system upon the recommendation of its central bank. Earlier, some hotels in the country stopped working with the Mir system. At first glance, Türkiye's ambiguous attitude is quite understandable and to a certain extent justified. Ankara is afraid of the spread of secondary US sanctions on its country.

Meanwhile, Gokce Khubar noted that "the protection of Ukraine's territorial integrity for Türkiye is of decisive importance", and Ankara is concerned about referendums to declare Russian-controlled Ukrainian territories as part of the Russian Federation. Moreover, the political analyst is sure that if such annexation occurs, Türkiye will never recognise it. By the way, it did not recognise the annexation of Crimea first of all, because Erdogan and his government "consider the issue of territorial integrity as a red line".

In general, despite the rather close cooperation and mutual understanding on a number of geopolitical issues, there were and are military-political contradictions between Ankara and Moscow. For example, this is the ambiguous attitude of the sides to the situation in Libya. Russia supports the eastern militias of [Libyan-US politician, military officer] Khalifa Haftar, while Türkiye supports the government in Tripoli that opposes them. We have not reached a mutual understanding on Syria either. Moscow supports President Bashar al-Assad, while Türkiye supports the opposition. The situation is also hard in the South Caucasus. Although Moscow does not show any signs, it is unlikely to be pleased with Ankara's growing influence in this region, because the Kremlin has been considering it as a zone of its interests and domination for a long time.

Russia and Türkiye have recently had disputes over Ukraine as well. Türkiye, which traditionally seeks to increase its influence in the Black Sea, to put it mildly, is not pleased with Russia's desire to become its "main owner". Therefore, according to some sources, Ankara is supporting Kyiv not only with mediation and humanitarian actions but also with weapons supplies. Those who note this primarily mention the Turkish Bayraktar drones sent to Ukraine, although, by the way, the contract for their supply was signed even before the war.

Moscow is unlikely to calmly perceive that President Erdogan took part in the online Crimea Platform summit in August 2022 and made a video message. "The demand for returning Crimea to Ukraine, of which it is an integral part, is, in fact, based on international law. The protection of Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and political unity is of crucial importance not only for regional but also for global security and stability," the president said.

However, it is possible that by strengthening relations with Türkiye, the Kremlin expects to weaken its positions in NATO, and perhaps even withdraw it from this bloc. In any case, Moscow's hopes are not justified and it is doubtful that they will come true in the future. In general, whatever it may be, Ankara's contradictions with Moscow are quite big, and therefore NATO membership is its insurance in case of their intensification. Moreover, Türkiye is fully integrated into the European market, and its economy is greatly linked to trade with the EU. It is necessary to take into account that the famous Turkish military industry, the companies of which ensure the growth of the country's military power and exports, in any case, should import European and American components.

As for NATO itself, the loss of a huge country, the second biggest army in NATO, protecting the southeastern flank of this organisation, is truly unacceptable for the US and European countries. Proceeding from the mentioned important reasons, at present, any breaking off relations between Türkiye and Europe and the US is out of the question.

Of course, it is possible to say that the Turkish politics of President Erdogan's era has traditionally made its way, manoeuvring between Moscow and Washington and benefiting from cooperation with both of them. Moreover, some time ago, it seemed that such a course had exhausted itself. President Erdogan was welcomed rather coolly both in Washington and in Moscow. Turkish political analyst Metin Gurcan wrote a few years ago that in such conditions Ankara would have to make a difficult choice and finally make a decision. However, the conflict in Ukraine and all recent events have shown that the strategy chosen by the Turkish leader is giving results. Türkiye's importance for the opposing powers, namely, the US and Russia, turned out to be too great for them to ignore the interests of this country. Today Ankara is doing almost everything that benefits the country in a balanced and tactful manner, and someone is unlikely to dare to interfere with it.