NATO concerned about Poland-Lithuania border region between Kaliningrad, Belarus

Many Russian trains are escorted by Lithuanian helicopters to ensure they don’t stop, and that nothing is put on or taken off a train.

Lithuanian border guards now fly four times as many patrols as they did in 2020, according to an interior ministry spokeswoman, and other helicopters take part in military exercises, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

“People thought the helicopters were Russian,” said Ms. Onaityte. “It’s scary.”

“People are also afraid of Belarus,” said Davydas Jasaitis, a friend of Ms. Onaityte’s who was recently spending the day with her and other friends at Lake Vistytis, which forms part of Lithuania’s border with Kaliningrad.

Suwalki, a city of almost 70,000, sits along the 45-mile corridor of NATO territory between two Russian military strongholds. To the southeast is Belarus, a close Russian ally that has served as a base for its invasion of Ukraine. To the northwest is Kaliningrad, a chunk of Russia that was disconnected from the rest of the country by the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Western military strategists call it the Suwalki Gap. What worries them is that Russia, having seized the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and invaded Ukraine this year, might resort to force to try to take over the border region, which would link Kaliningrad with Belarus.

Threatening comments from the Russian and Belarus governments have increased anxiety in the region, as have moves such as a bill recently introduced in Russia’s parliament to revoke Moscow’s 1991 recognition of Lithuania’s independence from the Soviet Union.

The Ukraine invasion has sparked similar unease in other nations surrounding Russia that for decades either were allied with Moscow or saw little threat of attack. Finland and Sweden have applied for NATO membership, while Kazakhstan and some other former-Soviet republics in Central Asia that remained in Russia’s orbit have edged away from Moscow, in part due to wariness over its reliability.

The Suwalki Gap region has a long history of conflict. Napoleon’s armies crossed it while invading and retreating from Russia. During both World Wars, it saw fierce fighting. When World War II ended, it fell under the control of the Soviet Union, and Kaliningrad was designated Russian territory.

Today, although military and intelligence officials don’t see an immediate military threat from Russia, they worry about its aggression and unpredictable behaviour.

Retired Polish Army Col. Kazimierz Kuczynski, who lives in Suwalki, is less worried. He said Russia has expended so many munitions in Ukraine that it lacks the resources to attack. “We can sleep peacefully,” he said.

For decades, the tracks were in Soviet territory, but the 1991 breakup of the U.S.S.R. and Lithuania’s independence turned the tracks into an international route. When the Baltic states entered the European Union in 2004, Russia and Lithuania agreed to terms for the train’s operation. Roughly 250 Russian trains crossed Lithuania each month last year, according to Lithuanian Railways.

EU sanctions on Moscow since February have complicated that arrangement. In June, Lithuanian authorities began enforcing EU restrictions by forbidding the shipment of some banned products on the train line. The resulting standoff temporarily halted all Russian rail traffic to Kaliningrad.

Moscow accused Lithuania of imposing a blockade on Kaliningrad and threatened an unspecified response. As tensions mounted in July, Lithuania said it was only enforcing EU rules, while Germany and some other members urged it not to inflame the situation. In late July, Lithuania and EU allies agreed to an approach meant to avoid conflict, but citizens were rattled.