NYT: Rising tensions in Strait of Hormuz spark energy fears across Asia

Asian economies are facing rising concern as the Middle East conflict intensifies, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement that military strikes on Iran could continue for weeks. Markets in major Asian capitals, including Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, and New Delhi, are closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s supply flows, much of it destined for Asia, The New York Times reports.

While countries maintain stockpiles capable of covering weeks or months, experts warn that a prolonged war or an Iranian blockade of the strait could severely disrupt energy supplies and economic stability. Analysts note that Tehran is unlikely to close the waterway, as it relies on oil exports to China for revenue. “It would be catastrophic not just for China, but for the global market,” said Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler in Singapore.

China imports over half its seaborne crude from the Middle East, with about a quarter from Iran, and has enough reserves for 115 days. Beijing also operates major pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan. “China can’t pivot to domestic demand fast enough to offset collapsing export margins and absorb an oil price shock simultaneously,” said Han Lin of the Asia Group consulting firm.

Japan and South Korea are particularly vulnerable, importing 90 percent and 70 percent of their crude oil from the Middle East, respectively. Japan holds 254 days of reserves, while South Korea has over 210 days, yet both nations are examining contingency measures to counter disruptions. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stressed, “We will take every possible measure to ensure the stable supply of energy for our nation.”

Taiwan, which imports 96 percent of its energy, depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil and liquefied natural gas. Its reserves could last roughly 120 days for oil and 11 days for natural gas. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and other major tech firms maintain backup generators, but these are not sufficient for long-term grid disruptions, according to Jheng Ruei-he of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research.

India is also adjusting its energy strategy after a recent US trade deal, shifting from Russian oil to Persian Gulf supplies, adding further complexity amid regional instability.

By Vafa Guliyeva