OPEC maintains oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day For 2025/2026

World oil demand is projected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in both 2025 and 2026, according to the latest monthly report from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), released in May.

This forecast remains unchanged from OPEC’s previous projections, reaffirming the group’s outlook for steady growth in global oil consumption, Caliber.Az reports, citing Russian media.

In absolute terms, global oil demand is expected to reach 105 million bpd in 2025 and increase to 106.28 million bpd in 2026.

OPEC attributes most of the demand growth — about 1.2 million bpd — to emerging economies in Asia, particularly China and India, as well as countries in the Middle East and Latin America. This regional trend is expected to persist into 2026.

While demand remains stable, OPEC has slightly reduced its forecast for oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries. The organisation now anticipates a supply increase of 0.8 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026, down 0.1 million bpd from previous estimates. In absolute terms, non-OPEC+ oil supply is expected to reach 54 million bpd in 2025 and rise marginally to 54.81 million bpd in 2026.

According to OPEC, the bulk of supply growth in 2025 will come from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina — a trend that is expected to continue into 2026. At the same time, Angola is forecast to see the most significant production decline among oil-producing nations.

About OPEC

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is a permanent intergovernmental organisation established in 1960 with the aim of coordinating and unifying petroleum policies among member countries. OPEC’s mission is to stabilise oil markets and ensure a consistent income for producers while maintaining a reliable energy supply to global consumers.

OPEC was founded on September 14, 1960, in Baghdad by five countries: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. As of 2025, it consists of 13 member states, primarily from the Middle East, Africa, and South America, including influential producers like Saudi Arabia (its de facto leader), the UAE, and Nigeria. The organisation is headquartered in Vienna, Austria.

Collectively, OPEC members control approximately 30–40% of global oil production and over 70% of proven oil reserves. To influence global oil prices and balance supply and demand, OPEC meets regularly to set production targets. In recent years, it has coordinated production decisions with major non-member producers such as Russia under the broader OPEC+ alliance.

By Tamilla Hasanova