Pentagon stands firm on Sentinel nuclear missile despite cost overruns

The LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program, pivotal to the United States Air Force's strategic modernisation efforts, is facing substantial challenges as costs continue to soar.

Originally conceived to replace the aging Minuteman III missiles, the Sentinel has encountered significant cost overruns and delays, prompting the Pentagon to embark on a comprehensive restructuring effort. Despite ballooning expenses and setbacks, the Pentagon remains steadfast in its commitment to the program, underscoring its critical role in bolstering national security amidst evolving global threats, Caliber.Az reports citing the foreign media.

The military plans to proceed with the development of its new LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile but has instructed the US Air Force to reorganize the program to manage its escalating costs.

According to the Pentagon, even with a “reasonably modified” version of the Sentinel manufactured by Northrop Grumman, the projected cost is expected to reach $140.9 billion.

This figure represents an 81 per cent increase from the original cost estimate of $77.7 billion. If no modifications are made and the program proceeds unchanged, the estimated cost could rise to approximately $160 billion.

The military anticipates that restructuring the program will result in a delay of several years.

"There are factors contributing to this cost escalation, but there are no justifications," stated William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, during a conference call with reporters. "We fully recognize the significant costs involved, yet we also acknowledge the risks of not modernizing our nuclear forces and addressing the genuine threats we face."

The Sentinel is designed to replace the Air Force's aging Minuteman III nuclear missile, which is approaching the end of its operational life. In January, the Air Force disclosed that projected future costs for the Sentinel had exceeded budget expectations to the extent that it triggered a review under the critical Nunn-McCurdy breach process.

Such reviews can potentially lead to the cancellation of a program. LaPlante indicated that he opted to proceed with the Sentinel after determining it met several criteria, including its critical importance to national security and the absence of less expensive alternatives that would fulfill the military's operational needs.

Big changes are underway for the Sentinel program. Undersecretary of Defense William LaPlante has revoked the program’s Milestone B approval, originally granted in September 2020, which authorized it to advance into the engineering and manufacturing development phase. LaPlante has directed the Air Force to overhaul the program to tackle the underlying causes of its cost overruns and ensure it adopts an effective management structure to control future expenditures.

Initially projected at $118 million per unit in 2020 when its cost, schedule, and performance objectives were established, the Sentinel's per-unit costs surged by at least 37 percent to around $162 million when the Nunn-McCurdy breach was announced in January. According to Andrew Hunter, the Air Force’s assistant secretary for acquisition, technology, and logistics, the revised Sentinel program, which encompasses additional components beyond its missiles, is anticipated to cost approximately $214 million per unit. Hunter noted that these estimates from the Pentagon’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) office carry a 50 per cent confidence level, indicating that costs could fluctuate.

Hunter expressed agreement with LaPlante’s decision and committed to developing a restructuring plan for Sentinel over the coming months, aiming to secure a new Milestone B approval. He cautioned that the entire process of revising the program, obtaining Pentagon approval for its updated plan, costs, and schedule, is expected to span 18 to 24 months.