PISM: US–Iran deal opens path to peace, but risks of collapse remain

A preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran could open the way toward de-escalation, but significant risks remain that may still derail the process, according to the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).

The official text of the agreement has not yet been published. However, statements from the parties involved indicate that its central provision is a commitment to cease all military actions, including in Lebanon. The deal is also expected to include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and the lifting of the US naval blockade.

A key unresolved issue remains the future of sanctions on Iran, with no jointly agreed details yet released. The status of Iran’s nuclear programme also remains unclear.

Following the signing of the agreement, a two-month phase of technical negotiations is expected to begin, during which detailed arrangements on sanctions relief and restrictions on uranium enrichment will be discussed. According to PISM, this means the announcement of a framework agreement does not equate to the end of the conflict, but rather marks the beginning of a complex negotiation phase.

The think tank warned that the situation in southern Lebanon remains the most vulnerable point of the agreement. Israel did not take part in the negotiations, and the deal is currently viewed as unfavourable to it, as it has not yet achieved its objective of neutralising Hezbollah.

As a result, military activity in the region is expected to continue, particularly strikes on targets in southern Lebanon. PISM noted that any Iranian response could trigger escalation, potentially undermining the peace process and halting US–Iran negotiations until hostilities cease.

For Gulf states, the agreement could bring improved security conditions and the restoration of full shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe is also expected to benefit from de-escalation through more stable energy markets and potential discussions on easing sanctions, provided Iran’s nuclear programme is brought under control. European countries may also be involved in demining operations in the Strait.

By Vugar Khalilov