NYT: Poland’s political shift sounds alarm on populism

In a recent opinion piece, The New York Times (NYT) points out that Poland has delivered a stark warning about the enduring strength of populism. The recent presidential victory of nationalist Karol Nawrocki, endorsed in a now-famous photo by US President Donald Trump, signals a renewed shift to the right in a country once hailed as a beacon of democratic resurgence. This outcome challenges hopes for a stable liberal order and raises urgent questions about the future of democracy—not just in Poland, but across the globe.

Despite recent defeats for Trump-endorsed candidates in Canada, Australia, and Romania, Polish voters bucked the trend by electing Nawrocki over Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. This marks a rightward shift in Poland just two years after Tusk’s own election victory, underscoring the persistence of populism and the ongoing challenges facing liberal democracy.

Tusk’s centrist Civic Platform party had narrowly ousted the far-right Law and Justice party in 2023 parliamentary elections, but coalition politics made governance fragile. Law and Justice remained deeply influential, retaining the presidency and continuing to wield power through constitutional manipulation, media control, and judicial subordination—obstacles that limited the Tusk administration’s ability to fulfill its reform agenda.

Poland’s geopolitical importance also loomed large, with the Tusk government increasing military spending to nearly 5 per cent of GDP—surpassing all NATO members—and securing nuclear technology from the US. Efforts to realign with the EU culminated in high-profile diplomacy alongside Ukraine and European leaders, positioning Poland as a key European partner.

However, the liberal resurgence proved fleeting. Nawrocki’s victory signals a new, more confrontational political era, with possibilities of early elections and a right-wing coalition between Law and Justice and the far-right Confederation party looming.

On the global stage, MAGA’s populist network is strengthening, blurring lines between isolationism and international influence. Nawrocki’s win proves that Trump’s endorsements can sway European elections, suggesting further trans-Atlantic populist cooperation ahead.

Both Poland and the US revealed in recent years that returning to previous political norms is no easy feat, highlighting the ongoing struggle between populism and liberal democracy worldwide.

By Naila Huseynova