Russia drags Caspian Basin into war in Ukraine Scene-setter by Heydar Mirza

The loss of the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet cruiser "Moskva" may affect the balance of power in the South Caucasus in the context of the strategic situation, and even in conditions of Ankara blocking the straits for military vessels. Only one of the South Caucasus countries, like Ukraine, is a partner of NATO and has problems with the territorial integrity and occupation of the territory, has access to the Black Sea. And that is Georgia. However, news reports that Russia has started to strike targets in Ukraine from missile cruisers on the Caspian Sea are increasingly popping up in the newsfeed. Thus, the geographical escalation involving the Caspian basin in the war in Ukraine has an impact on Azerbaijan's interests by default.

If we talk about the pre-war security in the Caspian Sea, it is largely the result of joint efforts of the diplomacy of all Caspian littoral states. And this did not happen immediately, but as a result of many years of negotiations. One of the most important conditions that suited everyone, but most of all Russia and Iran, was that the Caspian must never become the basin of the presence of external players and the arena of forceful confrontation. Although, it is these two most sabre-rattling countries in the Caspian Sea.

In October 2015, Russian commanders first indirectly engaged the Caspian basin in a conflict when targets in Syria were hit by Russian missile cruisers in the Caspian Sea, in particular, the missile cruiser "Dagestan". It was commissioned in 2021 and armed with now-famous "Kalibr" missiles, among others. The current war is the second case and a much more serious one. It is much more serious not only in terms of the scale, intensity and involvement of the parties, but also because the Russian Black Sea Fleet is currently weakened and, according to reports from both the Ukrainian side and Western intelligence services, very cautious. Some part of strikes on targets in Ukraine even before, in the first weeks of the war, were related to the missile capabilities of the ships of the Caspian Flotilla of the Russian Navy. And in the current conditions, this will happen to a greater extent. For example, missile strikes on Lviv were carried out from ships in the Caspian Sea.

By the way, the missile cruiser "Dagestan", which, along with its twin, the missile cruiser "Tatarstan", was part of the 11661 Gepard patrol ships, visited Baku in 2013. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was also on board the ship, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin. During the tour, the presidents made entries in the ship's Book of Honorary Visitors. Sailors of the Russian Caspian Flotilla presented a photo of the first missile launch with the modern system "Kalibr-NK" as a memorable gift to the presidents. It's kind of awkward, isn't it: to build a ship and a year later come to your Caspian neighbour, whom you call a strategic partner, and boast about the launch of a long-range missile.

But it happened in 2013 when the war in Ukraine had not even started yet. As for current events, we consider the Caspian Basin's involvement in the war in Ukraine to be growing. This is not alarmism; it is simply that as the capabilities of the ship grouping in the Black Sea are depleted, the involvement of the Russian command of ships in the Caspian makes them legitimate targets, if not for Ukraine as itself, then for Ukraine which is armed with very modern and high-precision Western weapons. In addition, sabotage should not be written off.

It is difficult to discuss the probability of all this, but we are talking about the trend, the direction in which everything is developing. If the conflict continues, the Russian side will rely less and less on aviation and more on longer-range missiles, including ship-based missiles, given the growing capabilities of Ukrainian air defences. This is another factor that does not inspire optimism in terms of the expected increased involvement of the Caspian Basin in the ongoing war in Ukraine.

And we should not forget that the Caspian Sea is a region of enormous importance in terms of the energy security of European countries. This is if we leave aside investments in the region's oil and gas infrastructure, including Western ones. Legitimization of Russian ships in the Caspian Sea as targets may take place, but will it be worth it if it turns into an all-in game for the Americans, the British and the EU countries, too? The latter, on top of everything else, are also looking for alternatives to Russian gas. This is very difficult to say - there are too many other variable factors, including the Iranian one. So time will tell. But today, it is possible to state one important historical fact. Last time, the Caspian Sea was indirectly involved in a conflict during World War II, particularly from the summer of 1942 to early 1944, when several German long-range bombers and reconnaissance planes were shot down over the territory of Soviet Azerbaijan.