Russia’s long road to victory: 118 years to conquer Ukraine?

According to a latest article, The Atlantic features that as the war in Ukraine grinds into its third year, Russia's advances have been agonizingly slow and costly, with thousands of soldiers lost and entire divisions wiped out—all for control of a landmass smaller than Rhode Island. 

At this pace, experts suggest Russia would need about 118 years to fully control Ukraine. During a recent meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US President Donald Trump claimed Ukraine is "not winning" the war and is in "a very bad position."

However, analysts like George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War argue that Russia’s position is equally dire. "Both sides have lost," Barros noted, adding that Russia’s failure to secure swift victory has led to significant losses, including 500 tanks and 1,000 armored personnel carriers in Donetsk alone.

The war has shifted from early battles dominated by anti-tank weapons to an artillery and drone conflict. Andrey Liscovich, who runs the Ukraine Defense Fund, believes Ukraine’s success lies not in sheer artillery firepower but in equipping its troops with practical tools like battery packs and radio kits. While Ukraine initially led the way in drone warfare, Russia quickly adapted, deploying drones at a greater scale than its smaller opponent.

Casualty estimates are contentious, but both sides have suffered heavy losses. Trump recently suggested that Russia has lost a million soldiers, a figure that experts believe is too high but still reflects the immense human cost. Barros warned that Russia’s ability to recruit fresh troops is "completely busted," relying on mercenaries and offering bonuses to attract volunteers.

Despite these challenges, the conflict continues, with both sides caught in a brutal war of attrition. "Protracting the conflict now actually hurts the Russians more than the Ukrainians," Barros concluded, signaling a slow, costly path ahead for both nations.

By Naila Huseynova