Russia’s naval pullback from Tartus indicates limited military support for Syria ISW study

Russia is evacuating naval forces from its base in the Syrian city of Tartus, signalling that it does not plan to send significant reinforcements to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the near term.

US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) made the due assessment in its daily review of the Russian military campaign, per Caliber.Az.

Satellite images from November 30 and December 1, analyzed by OSINT expert MT Anderson, revealed that the Russian base in Tartus hosted the frigates Admiral Golovko and Admiral Grigorovich, the submarine Novorossiysk, and the oil tankers Yelnya and Vyazma. However, by December 3, subsequent satellite images showed that Russia had withdrawn these vessels, including the three frigates, the submarine, and two unnamed auxiliary vessels, presumably Yelnya and Vyazma.

ISW suggests that Russia cannot redeploy these ships to its ports in the Black Sea due to Türkiye's adherence to the Montreux Convention, which prevents Russian warships from passing through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. Consequently, the ISW speculates that these ships may be redeployed to Russian bases in northwestern Russia or the Kaliningrad region instead.

In addition, the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Military Intelligence reported on December 3 that the Russian military command had likely redeployed a force from its African Corps to Syria. This African Corps was formed by the Russian Ministry of Defence after the death of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, taking over Wagner's operations in Africa. Although ISW could not independently confirm the deployment of African Corps forces to Syria, the potential redeployment suggests that Russia is avoiding the movement of regular Armed Forces from the priority operations in Ukraine to Syria.

The ISW report emphasized that the evacuation of Russian troops from Tartus, alongside reports of the African Corps' deployment to Syria, points to Russian concerns about potential advances by Syrian opposition forces toward Hama, located about 80 kilometres northeast of Tartus.

The report stated, "Russia is concerned that Syrian opposition forces could advance south to Hama and threaten its base in Tartus." However, the ISW concluded that, despite these concerns, the Russian military command will not deploy significant reinforcements in Syria in the near term to prevent such an advance.

By Tamilla Hasanova