The Abraham Accords: A diplomatic mirage or a path to lasting peace?

A recent article by Foreign Affairs provides a critical analysis of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, particularly focusing on the Abraham Accords and the dynamics of Arab-Israeli normalization. It explores the contrast between the optimistic vision of peace espoused by both the Trump and Biden administrations and the reality of escalating violence in the region, especially the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

The article traces the Abraham Accords’ origins as a key achievement of Donald Trump’s first term, with normalization deals between Israel and several Arab nations, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, Jason Greenblatt, highlighted that Trump was determined to continue this policy, aiming to secure broader regional agreements. The article notes that while Trump sought to integrate Israel more deeply into the Middle East, his approach largely sidelined the Palestinian issue, an aspect that has been contentious among critics of the Abraham Accords.

The article also discusses President Biden's approach, which builds on the Abraham Accords while trying to push for a major Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. The author highlights how Biden’s offer of a strategic partnership with the U.S. in exchange for Saudi normalization of relations with Israel marks a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. However, this approach also tries to bypass the Palestinian issue, which has led to criticisms that regional peace cannot be achieved without addressing the Palestinian struggle for statehood.

The piece emphasizes how the Palestinian question continues to be central to regional stability, underlined by the Hamas-led October 7 attack on Israel and the subsequent conflict. These events have reminded the international community that Arab-Israeli normalization cannot proceed in the absence of a viable solution to the Palestinian issue. The article argues that, contrary to the belief that peace could be achieved without a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the current trajectory has actually resulted in greater instability, as Israel’s unchecked expansion in Palestinian territories worsens the humanitarian crisis.

Critics of the Accords, according to the article, argue that the accords overlook the long-standing grievances of the Palestinian people and may even embolden Israeli actions that undermine regional peace. The article reflects on how normalization deals have not led to tangible progress on the Palestinian cause and have left Palestinians more vulnerable, as Arab states have moved away from using their influence to pressure Israel. This is underscored by the failure of these Arab states, such as the UAE and Bahrain, to intervene in key issues like settlement expansion or violence against Palestinians.

The article concludes that, despite the Trump administration’s hope of securing a U.S.-Saudi-Israeli mega-deal, the environment for such an agreement has shifted drastically due to the intense violence in Gaza. The prospect of Saudi-Israeli normalization now seems remote, and the article suggests that the Abraham Accords have not only failed to bring peace but have deepened the region’s instability, empowering Israeli dominance and ignoring Palestinian rights.

In summary, the article presents a strong critique of U.S. policy, highlighting how the focus on Arab-Israeli normalization, bypassing the Palestinian issue, has led to unintended consequences that undermine long-term peace and stability in the Middle East.

By Vugar Khalilov