The Economist: Europe faces decade-long challenge to achieve military autonomy from US

As Europe grapples with growing security challenges, particularly in the wake of the ongoing Ukraine conflict, it has become increasingly clear that achieving military autonomy from the United States will require significant time and investment.

According to experts, it could take up to a decade for European countries to develop a fully self-sufficient defence capability, Caliber.Az reports, citing The Economist.

Currently, European nations are engaged in discussions about a potential military deployment to Ukraine to enforce any future peace agreements. The proposed deployment, led by France and Britain, would involve sending a relatively modest force of tens of thousands of troops to protect key Ukrainian infrastructure, including cities, ports, and nuclear power plants. However, such a move would expose three significant vulnerabilities in Europe’s defence capabilities.

First, European forces are already overstretched. There are approximately 230 Russian and Ukrainian brigades in Ukraine, but many European countries would struggle to form even one combat-capable brigade each. Second, deploying troops to Ukraine could weaken Europe’s own defences, particularly NATO’s readiness. A British deployment, for example, could deplete units that are essential for NATO’s defence plans. Third, any European deployment would require substantial U.S. support, including intelligence, air defence assets, and the promise of military backup in the event of a Russian attack.

The challenge of achieving military independence from the U.S. is underscored by Europe’s reliance on American support for various critical defence capabilities. According to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Europe’s air forces, despite having modern jets, lack sufficient stockpiles of munitions and do not have the training necessary for high-intensity aerial warfare. Additionally, Europe is almost entirely dependent on the U.S. for airborne electronic warfare, intelligence gathering, and reconnaissance.

Command and control remain another critical issue. NATO’s military operations are largely coordinated by American personnel, and European expertise in managing large military formations is primarily concentrated in British and French officers. While countries like Türkiye and Poland are improving, many European forces lack the capability to run complex, high-intensity military operations, as demonstrated by Israel’s ongoing air campaign in Gaza.

Even if Europe can generate and command its own forces, sustaining them with adequate supplies of munitions remains a challenge. While Europe has made strides in increasing artillery production and missile manufacturing, Russia’s defence industry, aided by North Korea, still holds an advantage. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reports that from February 2022 to September 2024, European NATO members procured 52% of new military systems from European manufacturers, while just 34% came from the U.S. However, for critical weapons such as rocket artillery and stealth aircraft, Europe still relies heavily on American supplies.

To achieve true military independence, Europe will need to invest heavily in its defence industry and capabilities. Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank, estimates that Europe would need to form 50 new brigades and procure 1,400 tanks to replace the 300,000 U.S. troops that could be deployed to the continent in the event of a war. This would require a significant increase in defence spending, potentially up to 4% of GDP, far above current levels.

The road to military autonomy is long and complex. But with rising security threats and increasing geopolitical uncertainty, European nations will need to make bold investments in their defence infrastructure if they hope to reduce their dependence on the U.S. and ensure their own security in the coming years.

By Vugar Khalilov