US faces record wave of Church closures amid shifting religious landscape

The United States is on track to see an unprecedented 15,000 churches shut their doors in 2025, a dramatic contraction that far outpaces the number of new congregations expected to open, according to church consultants and denominational reports.

The trend reflects a broader shift in American religious life, as growing numbers of people move away from organised religion and traditional denominations struggle to maintain relevance, particularly in rural communities where churches often serve as crucial hubs for food aid, child care, and disaster response, Caliber.Az reports via Axios.

“This is not just a church issue — it's a community issue,” said Thom Rainer, a former president of LifeWay Christian Resources and a prominent consultant on church health. In a widely circulated piece in the Baptist Courier, Rainer warned that the U.S. is entering a new era of accelerated church decline. He predicted that another 15,000 churches will shift from full-time to part-time pastors this year alone.

The National Council of Churches has projected that 100,000 churches across denominations could close over the next several years — roughly a quarter of the estimated 350,000 to 400,000 churches currently operating in the country.

This decline is happening as the number of religiously unaffiliated Americans hits a record high. According to the Pew Research Center, 29% of U.S. adults now identify as having no religion, while Christian affiliation has dropped from 78% in 2007 to 62% today.

While mainline Protestant churches — including Methodist, Presbyterian, and Lutheran congregations — account for most of the closures, experts say the closures mark a cultural and political shift as well.

“The closures mark a shift away from once-powerful denominations in the U.S. that brought people of diverse political views together,” said Ryan Burge, a political scientist and author of the forthcoming book "The Vanishing Church: How the Hollowing Out of Moderate Congregations Is Hurting Democracy, Faith, and US." He added that “many communities are left with empty church buildings that can be difficult to sell because they often are next to historic cemeteries.”

Catholic churches are also facing closures, due in part to the lasting impact of clergy abuse scandals. Andrew Chesnut, chair in Catholic Studies at Virginia Commonwealth University, noted that “Baltimore's Catholic Archdiocese, the nation's oldest, is slashing its churches by about two-thirds, citing shrinking attendance and aging buildings.”

“I think the only ones who have shown some dynamism lately on the American Christian landscape are these non-denominational, usually charismatic megachurches,” Chesnut added.

These large evangelical churches have grown in political and cultural influence, especially within Republican circles, but their growth is not without challenges. Burge said that despite their size, many megachurches experience high turnover.

“The large churches have a lot of churn. A lot of new people come in every year, but a lot of people leave too, because they never build strong and deep ties,” he explained. He also warned that their heavy reliance on charismatic leaders makes them vulnerable to sudden decline in the event of scandal or death.

Chesnut cautioned that political overreach could hurt the evangelical movement long-term, particularly among younger Americans.

“I think evangelicals are going to pay the price for so closely hitching their wagon to MAGA,” he said. “If you're making kids pray in school, as I've learned anytime I make my kids do something, they'll do the opposite.”

By Sabina Mammadli