The Times: Trump’s shifting Ukraine policy raises concerns over future without US support

As peace talks between Russia and Ukraine stall, US President Donald Trump appears increasingly eager to step back from the negotiation table — a move that is raising alarm in Kyiv and among America’s European allies.

Trump’s latest signals — including withholding new weapons packages and offering opaque answers on future military aid — have left Ukrainian leaders deeply uncertain about the reliability of their most powerful backer, The Times writes in its analysis.

As the US leader mentioned previously, Ukraine would have “a low chance to survive” without American weapons. But in a recent interview, Trump refused to offer clarity on the country’s plans to continue supplying arms to Ukraine, saying only: “I want to leave that as a big, fat secret.”

Since the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, the United States has provided more than $65 billion in military support to Ukraine, nearly half the total international assistance. A final $1.25 billion package authorised by outgoing President Joe Biden has sustained weapons deliveries in recent months, but no new authorisations have been made since Trump returned to office. The last comparable pause in U.S. support occurred in early 2024 during a prolonged congressional deadlock.

Now, concern is growing that once current supplies run out — estimated within six months — Ukraine could find itself exposed. The U.S. arsenal includes key defensive systems such as Patriot missile batteries and long-range ATACMS used to target Russian supply lines. Without fresh shipments, Kyiv would lose access to some of its most sophisticated battlefield tools.

Compounding fears, Trump has also temporarily suspended battlefield intelligence sharing, a decision Ukrainian officials say contributed to recent Russian gains in the Kursk region.

However, Ukraine has previously gone periods without US aid without its defensive lines collapsing. The country has also rapidly developed its domestic drone industry, now credited with causing up to 70 per cent of Russian casualties. In 2024 alone, Ukraine produced over a million first-person-view drones and plans to scale up even further.

Solomiia Bobrovska, deputy head of Ukraine’s NATO delegation, acknowledged the strain a halt in U.S. aid would bring but remained defiant.

 “It will be hard, but it’s possible for us to survive, and we will continue to fight,” she said. However, she warned that replacing American air defence systems would be far more difficult.

Europe has pledged $24 billion in additional aid and is beginning to ramp up its own arms production, but questions persist about whether it can fully offset any American retreat.

Meanwhile, Trump’s approach to diplomacy is fuelling further tensions. A recent U.S. peace proposal that reportedly included American recognition of Crimea as Russian territory was rejected by both sides. President Vladimir Putin continues to demand control of four eastern Ukrainian regions, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has insisted that “no rewards for Putin — especially no land” are acceptable.

A visit to Washington by Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, was widely interpreted as a signal that the Trump administration is seeking closer business ties with Moscow. Observers say this could explain the lack of new tariffs on Russia, even as Ukraine remains subject to Trump’s trade restrictions.

“Engaging with Russia, that’s the big prize for Trump … the rapprochement with Russia, not peace in Ukraine, and not saving Ukraine,” said Peter Rutland, a Russia analyst at Wesleyan University.

Inside Ukraine, some officials are beginning to question whether continued American involvement in peace negotiations is even helpful, considering Trump’s “anti-Ukrainian position”.

But others caution that a U.S. exit would only embolden Moscow. Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, a senior Ukrainian lawmaker and former security chief, warned that if America walks away, “Putin would have a whole new Victory Day to celebrate.”

He believes Trump’s threats to withdraw may be a strategic bluff aimed at strengthening his hand in negotiations, but it’s a gamble with high stakes. “The American taxpayer has already paid out billions of dollars to support us,” Nalyvaichenko said. “If they walk away, what will it all have been for?”

By Sabina Mammadli