Trump heads to China: Can fragile trade truce hold?

US President Donald Trump’s visit to China this week for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping marks a key test for efforts to stabilise ties between the world’s two largest economies, as a fragile trade truce comes under renewed pressure from tariffs, industrial policy tensions and broader geopolitical frictions, BBC reports.

Beijing has confirmed that Trump will travel between May 13–15, in what will be the first visit by a sitting US president to China in nearly a decade. 

The trip comes alongside executives from major US firms including Boeing, Citigroup and Qualcomm, underscoring the commercial stakes tied to the talks.

The trade confrontation traces back to Trump’s first term, when he imposed tariffs on $250bn of Chinese imports in 2018, triggering a cycle of retaliatory measures. Analysts say the dispute escalated into a broader structural shift in global trade relations.

“It was the first time they dealt with Trump seriously, and they probably did not expect him to go ahead with it,” Ning Leng, a policy researcher at Georgetown University, said.

China’s reliance on US demand at the time left it exposed, while broader domestic economic weaknesses — including sluggish consumption and a property downturn — compounded the impact.

“It’s harder for one country to withstand a trade war with another that it has a trade surplus with,” Leng said.

Under former president Joe Biden, Washington maintained much of the tariff architecture and expanded restrictions on Chinese technology firms, including Huawei and TikTok, while also tightening controls on Chinese electric vehicles and advanced semiconductors.

“We often think that Trump is tough on China, but there is an argument to say that Biden was even more protectionist than Trump was,” said economist Tang Heiwai of the University of Hong Kong.

Since returning to office in 2025, Trump has intensified tariff measures, citing issues ranging from fentanyl flows to trade imbalances. The latest rounds of tariffs have reached among the highest levels imposed on any US trading partner, prompting fresh retaliation from Beijing.

The October 2025 meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea produced a temporary easing of tensions, including China suspending export controls on rare earths and the US pausing certain tariff escalations. However, no durable settlement was reached.

This week’s agenda is expected to focus on agricultural purchases, industrial supply chains and access to critical materials. China’s growing export strength and investment in advanced manufacturing have given Beijing greater leverage, even as domestic demand remains weak.

The visit also comes amid legal uncertainty in Washington over the scope of presidential tariff authority, adding further unpredictability to US trade policy.

With tensions over Iran and global energy security also in the background, the talks are likely to test whether the current truce can evolve into a more stable framework — or whether strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing will deepen further.

By Aghakazim Guliyev