Trump’s looming deal with Putin: Will Ukraine’s borders be redrawn? NYT compares upcoming meeting with 1945 Yalta Conference

In a recent article published by The New York Times, the authors suggest that President Donald Trump's upcoming phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin could have significant geopolitical implications, drawing comparisons to the historic 1945 Yalta Conference.

To hear President Trump describe it, he and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia are about to have something akin to their own Yalta moment, great powers determining borders within Europe, the authors write.

Although Trump did not explicitly reference the historic meeting between Winston Churchill, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Joseph Stalin, he made it clear that the focus of his scheduled phone call with Putin would be on discussing what territories and assets Russia will retain in any potential cease-fire with Ukraine.

Trump indicated that the conversation would revolve around how much land Russia will be rewarded with for its ongoing aggression against Ukraine, which began in 2014 with the seizure of Crimea and escalated into a full-scale war in 2022. White House aides have suggested that Russia will certainly retain Crimea and likely most of the territory it currently controls, including roughly 20% of Ukrainian land.

Trump did not specify which Ukrainian territories would be up for discussion, but he confirmed that key issues like land and the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant — the largest in Europe — would be part of the talks. "We’ll be talking about land, it’s a lot of land," Trump said. "We’ll be talking about power plants. That’s a big question.”

Trump was careful not to delve too deeply into specific territorial discussions, nor did he specify whether he would attempt to limit Putin’s territorial ambitions. However, aides to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed concerns that Trump might entertain Russia’s demands for additional parts of Ukraine, such as the crucial port of Odesa. Despite this, Trump and his national security team emphasized that these talks are necessary to end the violence that has ravaged the region for three years.

National Security Adviser Michael Waltz also spoke about the talks, emphasizing that the primary goal of the negotiations was to end the fighting. Waltz, who had previously supported Ukraine’s sovereignty, now argued that ensuring a cease-fire and preventing further escalation was paramount. "Are we going to drive every Russian off of every inch of Ukrainian soil, including Crimea?" Waltz asked. The Trump administration has expressed reluctance to pursue a long-term military commitment to Ukraine, as was the approach of former President Joe Biden’s administration.

Trump has also been preparing to make concessions to Putin in order to facilitate negotiations. For instance, the US Justice Department has informed European officials that the United States will withdraw from a multinational effort to investigate Russian leaders responsible for the invasion of Ukraine, including Putin. Additionally, the Justice Department has scaled back its War Crimes Accountability Team, which was created in 2022 to hold Russians accountable for atrocities committed during the conflict. These moves suggest that Trump’s administration may be willing to ease pressure on Russia as part of efforts to reach an agreement.

Experts such as Monica Duffy Toft, a professor of international politics at Tufts University, have drawn comparisons between the current geopolitical situation and the end of World War II, when the major powers negotiated a new world order at the Yalta Conference. Toft noted that both Putin and Trump seem to seek territorial expansion as part of their vision for national greatness, with territorial control playing a central role in their respective policies. She also pointed to China as a key factor in future global negotiations, especially in light of Putin’s ambitions and their possible influence on China’s own territorial objectives, particularly regarding Taiwan.

The negotiation process remains fluid, with the US and Russia continuing to explore potential terms. While the broader international community, including Ukraine and European allies, remains wary of the potential outcomes, the outcome of this conversation between Trump and Putin may have far-reaching consequences for the future of Ukraine, Russia, and global stability.

By Tamilla Hasanova