Trump’s potential return spurs South Korea’s nuclear debate

In an article by The Daily Beast, the escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula are highlighted, focusing on South Korea’s growing interest in developing its own nuclear arsenal. This move is driven by increasing threats from global leaders like Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un.

Despite new "guidelines for nuclear deterrence" agreed upon by U.S. and South Korean officials at a NATO summit, which were meant to assuage South Korea's security concerns, many South Koreans remain anxious about the reliability of the U.S. alliance, especially with the potential return of Trump to the presidency.

The article details how Na Kyung-won, a prominent South Korean politician running for leadership of the ruling People Power Party, is at the forefront of the movement advocating for South Korea's nuclear armament. Na’s campaign has gained traction, reflecting public sentiment that views Trump as a significant security risk comparable to Putin. Na, a seasoned politician and former judge, argues that while the U.S.-South Korea alliance serves as a deterrent, it does not guarantee future security. Her stance calls for the U.S. to relax its prohibition on South Korea developing nuclear weapons for defence purposes.

Historical context is provided, noting Trump’s previous demand for South Korea to pay $5 billion annually for American troop presence, which threatened the future of significant U.S. bases in South Korea. Although the Biden administration reduced this figure, the anxiety over Trump's potential actions if re-elected remains high.

Na’s declaration on June 25, marking the anniversary of the Korean War’s start, that South Korea should become a nuclear power, has ignited debates that had quieted in recent years. Conservatives have rallied behind her, reigniting discussions about nuclear weapons despite efforts by allies to suppress the issue.

Internal political dynamics also come into play, with Na’s criticism of President Yoon Suk-yeol and his wife causing friction within the ruling party. Despite these issues, Na's long-standing political career, including her time as head of the assembly’s foreign affairs committee and her advocacy for disabled rights, positions her as a significant figure in South Korean politics.

Experts are divided on the effectiveness of a South Korean nuclear arsenal. Some argue it would not significantly enhance deterrence and could play into Kim Jong Un’s strategy to divide the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Victor Cha, a Korean expert, notes that while South Koreans fear international repercussions, a Trump presidency could shift strategic opinions towards nuclear development.

The article underscores the broader geopolitical context, including the North Korean-Russian defence pact and Russia's potential assistance in North Korea's nuclear program. This collaboration raises alarms in South Korea, the U.S., and other countries.

Evans Revere, a former U.S. diplomat, highlights the domestic support in South Korea for nuclear armament but cautions against the broader implications, such as withdrawal from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and potential strains on international relations. The anxiety over Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy further complicates the situation, with concerns that his return could lead to significant shifts in U.S. military commitments in the region.

Ultimately, The Daily Beast article encapsulates the complex interplay of regional security threats, political dynamics, and the contentious debate over nuclear armament in South Korea.