Trump's push for peace: Will Putin agree to unconditional ceasefire?

US President Donald Trump’s upcoming phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to be a pivotal moment in his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

The two leaders are expected to discuss a US-backed 30-day unconditional ceasefire, a central element of Trump’s foreign policy. Putin, however, has stipulated that Russia will only agree to such a ceasefire if it addresses the “root causes” of the conflict, which the Kremlin defines as the pro-Western Ukrainian government led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

Last week, Putin indicated Russia's willingness to discuss a ceasefire, but with conditions, including a ban on Western arms deliveries to Ukraine and a halt to Kyiv’s military mobilization. This marks a significant challenge for Trump, whose self-professed “great relationship” with Putin will now be tested as he seeks to secure a temporary truce.

Mikhail Kasyanov, former Russian Prime Minister, speculates that Putin will use the opportunity to delay any meaningful compromise. “Putin is not ready for any compromises in the next three to four months,” Kasyanov remarked. “He will drag out time by saying things that are pleasant for Trump.” Kasyanov also predicts that Putin, facing mounting economic pressures due to Western sanctions, may be ready to consider some concessions later this year if Ukraine can survive until then.

Trump’s approach to Moscow has drawn attention, particularly after the Kremlin’s positive response to his return to the White House, with Russians' favorable view of the US increasing significantly since November. Despite this, Putin remains fixated on securing territorial concessions from Ukraine and preventing NATO membership for the country in the future.

Sergey Radchenko, a Russian foreign policy expert, suggested that Putin would likely attempt to “flatter” Trump and “tempt him with visions of a ‘great’ Russian-American relationship and economic ‘deals’.” However, Radchenko believes that Putin will not back down from his core demands in Ukraine.

While Trump has threatened to impose “devastating” economic consequences on Russia if they refuse the ceasefire deal, analysts warn that his options may be limited. Russia’s economy, heavily sanctioned, has defied expectations, complicating any immediate leverage Trump might have.

Even if a ceasefire is reached, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stressed, “We are talking about a temporary truce. This is in no way a frozen conflict.” The future of peace remains uncertain as the two leaders prepare to engage in crucial talks.

By Vafa Guliyeva