Trump surpasses Harris in US election forecast, claims 54% victory probability

Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in The Economist's statistical model of the upcoming US presidential election for the first time since August. 

According to the latest forecast, Trump has a 54% chance of winning, up by six percentage points in the last week, Caliber.Az reports.

Though the race remains close, the momentum has shifted slightly in Trump's favour.

The narrowing of Harris's lead in national polls over the past month is contributing to this shift. After becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee in July, Harris saw her national vote share rise from 46% to 49%, largely due to support from previously undecided or third-party voters, many of whom were likely disillusioned Democrats.

Now, Trump is benefiting from similar partisan consolidation, as Republican-leaning undecided voters rally behind him. His support has increased from 45% in August to 47%, cutting Harris's lead in the national vote from 3.7 points to just 1.6.

While Harris still holds a 74% chance of winning the popular vote, Trump's advantage lies in the electoral college. Recent state-specific polls show Trump gaining ground in key swing states. The candidates are neck and neck in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Trump holds a narrow lead in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.

As a result, Harris would need to win the national popular vote by at least 2.5 percentage points to have a strong chance in the electoral college.

With only two weeks left in the campaign, there is little time for major changes in polling. However, even a small polling error could result in a decisive victory for either candidate, with nearly a 50/50 chance that one will secure at least 306 electoral votes—the same number won by Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2016.

By Aghakazim Guliyev