Trump to renew "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran in second term

President-elect Donald Trump plans to intensify sanctions on Iran and curb its oil exports as part of a strategy to weaken Tehran's support for militant groups and its nuclear ambitions. This approach is a continuation of his first-term "maximum pressure" campaign, which aimed to isolate Iran economically and diplomatically, though it had mixed results in halting Iran's nuclear work and proxy operations.

Trump’s renewed focus on Iran will likely be influenced by the fact that Tehran is believed to have been involved in plots to target him and former national security officials in retaliation for the 2020 US drone strike that killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani. Former officials suggest that Trump is personally invested in confronting Iran, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

The new administration is expected to quickly reimpose severe sanctions on Iran's oil industry, aiming to further squeeze its revenue. Officials believe that Iran is vulnerable, and this is seen as an opportunity to exploit its weakened position. Trump’s team is considering measures like targeting foreign ports and traders involved in Iranian oil transactions, mimicking strategies from his first term that resulted in a sharp decline in Iranian oil exports.

Despite previous sanctions, Iran’s oil exports surged in 2023, with some critics accusing the Biden administration of not enforcing sanctions effectively. In contrast, Trump had slashed Iran’s crude shipments in 2019. This time, however, Trump could face the challenge of avoiding a rise in global oil prices, which could spark inflation.

Trump’s advisors have also expressed support for Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear and energy infrastructure. This aligns with his tough stance on Tehran, although Trump has indicated he is not interested in overthrowing Iran's leadership, focusing instead on weakening the regime’s ability to fund its regional proxy groups.

Iran has responded by suggesting it will deepen its economic ties with Asian partners like China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, while some Iranian officials fear the sanctions could devastate its oil industry. However, Tehran might also escalate its nuclear program or target Middle Eastern oil facilities in retaliation.

By Vafa Guliyeva