UK intelligence analyzes Russia’s Oreshnik missile after Dnipro strike

British intelligence has provided insights into the Oreshnik missile, which Russia used in its recent strike on Dnipro, stating that the missile is a variant of the RS-26 ballistic missile, and Russia possesses several such missiles in its arsenal.

UK Ministry of Defence shared the intelligence assessment on its social media page, per Caliber.Az.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 29 November 2024.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/7fBRWxZXXf#StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/AbD4ZNk53a

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) November 29, 2024

The UK government’s report revealed that Russia used an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) codenamed "Oreshnik" to target a Ukrainian factory in Dnipro on November 21. This marked the first use of the Oreshnik missile. The missile is classified with a maximum range of 3,000 to 5,500 kilometres, although in this instance, it travelled just over 800 kilometres to hit its target.

In February 2019, Russia withdrew from the Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missile Elimination Treaty, which had prohibited the development and production of IRBMs. However, it is believed that the Oreshnik missile was developed before this withdrawal. The system is likely based on the RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile, which was first tested in 2011, the report stated.

According to British intelligence, the missile’s payload included six groups of six warheads, totalling 36 submunitions. These submunitions travelled at hypersonic speeds (over Mach 5) before striking their target, which is typical for missiles of this class. IRBMs and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) generally travel at hypersonic speeds upon re-entry.

The UK Ministry of Defence noted, “The use of this experimental system against Ukraine was almost certainly intended as a strategic message following Ukraine’s use of Western missiles on Russia. Russia likely has only a few Oreshnik missiles, which have not yet entered mass production. This missile is likely to be much more expensive than other missiles Russia is currently using against Ukraine.”

On November 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Russian Defence Ministry and the General Staff were looking for suitable targets in Ukraine for a strike using the Oreshnik missile. He suggested that decision-making centres in Ukraine might be targeted, particularly as Ukraine has repeatedly attempted to strike Russian state facilities.

Putin also pointed out that Ukraine had made several attempts to attack targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. He further mentioned that Russia now has several Oreshnik missile systems ready for use and is conducting missile tests in response to long-range missile strikes in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.

Putin stated that the power of a massive strike using Oreshnik missiles would be comparable to that of nuclear weapons. He also revealed that serial production of the Oreshnik system has already started and that similar missile systems are not expected to appear elsewhere in the world anytime soon.

Additionally, Putin confirmed that Russia will increase production of these missiles by 25% starting next year. “As for the production of relevant missile systems and equipment, it is 10 times greater in Russia than the combined production of all NATO countries,” Putin emphasized.

By Tamilla Hasanova