UK intelligence: Israel-Iran conflict threatens Russia’s military supply chain

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran presents both strategic challenges and opportunities for the Russia, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence says.

British defence intelligence shared a post on its X account, suggesting that Moscow may attempt to leverage the heightened tensions in the Middle East to divert global attention from its ongoing war in Ukraine, Caliber.Az reports.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 19 June 2025.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/U9HZW5XZyG#StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/cFeXwzokiF

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) June 19, 2025

While the conflict offers short-term advantages in the information and diplomatic spheres, it simultaneously threatens Russia's critical military supply chain, particularly its arms partnership with Tehran.

The Defence Intelligence update notes that Russia has no formal obligation to provide Iran with military assistance under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement signed in January 2025. This agreement covers cooperation in a range of areas, including defence and security, but does not include a mutual defence clause, unlike Russia’s treaties with Belarus and North Korea.

"Russia almost certainly perceives some benefit in the conflict as it distracts international focus from its war against Ukraine."

The conflict is, however, likely to disrupt the supply of Iranian military equipment, including strike drones, ballistic missiles and artillery ammunition, to Russia in the future. Iran has also provided support to Russia in establishing domestic drone production facilities.

Iran has become one of Russia's most significant military suppliers in recent months, providing large quantities of loitering munitions (barrage drones), artillery shells, and technical support for the localized production of drones within Russia. The report highlights that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could severely disrupt these supply lines.

By Vafa Guliyeva