Ukraine-Georgia: New clash between authorities of two countries Kyiv and Tbilisi in touch with Caliber.Az

Ukraine has imposed sanctions against the relatives of oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili for 10 years. This follows from the decree of the President of Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has introduced a decision of the National Security Council of the country on sanctions. The list includes both relatives and partners of Georgian billionaire and former prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili - his brother Alexander Ivanishvili, his wife Ketevan Kharaidze, Bidzina Ivanishvili's cousin and confidante Ucha Mamatsashvili and his son Tate Mamatsashvili, as follows from the annex to Decree #727/2022 published on the presidential website.

In particular, Ivanishvili's relatives are banned from disposing of assets in Ukraine, withdrawing capital, privatizing land, acquiring land plots, and are also restricted from entering and transiting Ukraine, the document reads.

At the same time, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry should inform "the competent authorities of the European Union, the USA and other states about the application of sanctions and raise before them the issue of introducing similar restrictive measures," the decree said.

Why did Kyiv take such a step? The thing is that shortly after the Russian intervention, Ukrainian politicians and high-ranking officials started talking about the imminent sanctions against the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili and his entourage. The party said at the time that this was a consequence of its cautious, and for the Georgian opposition, "capitulatory" stance on the issue of strong condemnation of Moscow's attack on Kyiv, and refusing to impose additional bilateral sanctions against Russia.

Kyiv has repeatedly accused the Georgian authorities of pandering to Moscow in circumventing Western sanctions. For example, the leader of the parliamentary faction of the ruling party Servant of the People, David Arahamia, has repeatedly promised to help Georgia "de-Bidzinasize". At the same time, Mikhail Podolyak, advisor to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office (in an interview with Voice of America) called Bidzina Ivanishvili "a very distinctly pro-Russian oligarch".

Kyiv's sanctions have understandably aggravated already strained Ukrainian-Georgian relations, and now the Ukrainian president himself has taken direct action against Ivanishvili's inner circle. The two countries were previously seen as close partners and allies, but what will happen now? A rupture between the two would represent a serious blow to the pro-Western, pro-European direction of the post-Soviet states generally.

Prominent experts from the respective states answered Caliber.Az's questions.

Volodymyr Fesenko, Ukrainian analyst, and director of the Penta Centre for Political Research believes that there will not be a breach, especially a complete one, but a significant cooling is possible.

"There is a very strong sentiment in Georgia to support Ukraine in the war against Russia. Therefore, in order not to spoil relations with Western partners, which are not very good as it is, Georgian authorities will not be able to make a break with Ukraine or any open hostile actions against Kyiv. There could be a note from the Georgian Foreign Ministry, some other critical statements, and regrets about these sanctions. Retaliation against the current Ukrainian authorities may (and most likely will) take place secretly, informally," he said.

But this is not the first cooling between Ukraine and Georgia, the expert notes. In 2014-2015, there was already a chill because of Saakashvili. There has not been any very active partnership between Ukraine and Georgia in recent years, especially after February 24. Therefore, there will be no dramatic consequences.

The pro-Western, pro-European movement of the post-Soviet states will not be influenced by the sanctions against Ivanishvili (there will be no significant impact), but by the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the expert said.

"That will be the decisive factor. Including influencing the situation in Georgia. The current Georgian leadership itself creates problems for its country, for its further European and Euro-Atlantic integration. It is not ruled out that pressure on Georgia on the Ivanishvili issue will start from the West after some time," Fesenko said.

For his part, the head of the School of International Relations of the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs, Professor Tornike Sharashenidze believes that "the Georgian authorities will simply ignore this unfriendly gesture of Kyiv".

"Because they are already accused of not being very supportive of Ukraine. So, if they take, let's say, tit-for-tat measures, for example, they impose sanctions on someone in Ukraine or recall the ambassador of Georgia from this country, this criticism against them will ratchet up. Like they do not support Ukraine in the war against Russia, these authorities are pro-Russian, and so on, blah-blah-blah.

So, most likely, the Georgian authorities will remain silent this time, ignore these criticisms, and will once again confirm that they have goodwill towards the people and the Ukrainian authorities," Sharashenidze said.