China warns of potential investment bubble in humanoid robotics sector

Chinese officials are cautioning that the country’s rapidly expanding humanoid robotics industry may be heading toward a major investment bubble.

Strategists at China’s top macroeconomic planning agency, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), say that a surge of capital into the sector risks crowding out other crucial markets and research areas.

The warning marks a notable shift in tone as China’s humanoid robot sector continues to attract billions of dollars in funding. Boosted by rapid advances in artificial intelligence and a wave of investor enthusiasm, the industry has ballooned to include more than 150 companies, according to the NDRC, Futurism writes. 

Officials say many of these companies are producing nearly identical machines, raising concerns that overlapping investment could overwhelm the market. They compared the trend to China’s bike-sharing boom of 2017–2018, when an explosion of competing apps saturated cities with millions of unused bicycles.

“Frontier industries have long grappled with the challenge of balancing the speed of growth against the risk of bubbles — an issue now confronting the humanoid robot sector as well,” NDRC spokeswoman Li Chao told reporters last week.

China has emerged as a global leader in the race to commercialise humanoid robots. Morgan Stanley estimates the global market could exceed $5 trillion by 2050, while Citigroup forecasts an even larger $7 trillion industry.

Companies such as Unitree are helping drive momentum. The firm’s G1 bipedal robot has attracted widespread attention for advanced — and highly publicised — capabilities, including throwing punches in a boxing ring and playing basketball. The boom has also fueled the growth of smaller startups, intensifying competition and raising further concern among policymakers about overheating.

In recent months, several companies have made bold claims about their progress. Robotics firm UBTECH announced the “world’s first mass delivery” of industrial humanoid robots, while startup AgiBot said its A2 robot set a Guinness World Record by walking more than 66 miles through continuous battery swap operations.

Despite these achievements, developing humanoid robots that are both affordable and truly useful remains a substantial challenge. Current models often struggle with basic tasks, especially without human teleoperation.

To mitigate risks and push the industry toward sustainable growth, the NDRC says it intends to distribute industrial resources more evenly across China and accelerate research into “core technologies.”

Analysts warn that without consolidation, China could soon face a glut of largely indistinguishable humanoid robots, which could either accelerate automation to a destabilising degree or trigger a sharp market downturn if the robots fail to meet real-world needs.

By Sabina Mammadli