US intelligence shows Iran retains significant missile, drone capabilities

Roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers remain intact, and thousands of one-way attack drones are still in the country’s arsenal, according to recent U.S. intelligence assessments, sources told CNN. The findings come after more than five weeks of daily U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian military targets.

“They are still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region,” one source said, describing Iran’s remaining capabilities.

The U.S. intelligence assessment includes launchers that may currently be inaccessible, such as those buried underground by previous strikes but not destroyed. According to the sources, roughly 50% of Iran’s drone capabilities remain intact.

The intelligence also indicates that a large portion of Iran’s coastal defence cruise missiles have survived, consistent with the U.S. air campaign’s focus on inland targets rather than coastal military assets, even as Iranian missiles continue to threaten shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

As of April 1, the U.S. military has struck more than 12,300 targets inside Iran, according to U.S. Central Command. The sources said the strikes have degraded Iran’s military capabilities and eliminated key senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s National Security Council.

Israeli military officials, however, estimate that only 20-25% of Iranian launchers remain operational, excluding those buried or made inaccessible in caves and tunnels, one source said.

On April 1, U.S. President Donald Trump set a timeline for concluding U.S. operations at two to three weeks. One source familiar with the U.S. intelligence assessment called the goal unrealistic.

“We can keep f**king them up, I don’t doubt it, but you’re out of your mind if you think this will be done in two weeks,” the source said.

By Sabina Mammadli