US unveils new strategy for Eurasian influence Central Asia, South Caucasus at forefront

The US continues making efforts to isolate Russia and China from global transportation routes. In this context, Washington is also seeking to involve other countries, such as Azerbaijan, in its geopolitical strategies.

US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien announced on July 30 that the US is exploring the possibility of creating a new onshore route connecting Central Asian countries to global markets via Armenia and Azerbaijan, bypassing both Russia and China.

"Central Asian countries are incredibly rich, and right now their only options to the global markets fundamentally are through Russia or China. If we can open up a road that goes through Azerbaijan or Armenia, then they will have access to the global market and much less dependence on Russia and China," O'Brien said during a meeting of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

However, there are some questions. Why did the US decide to reshape international transit routes without consulting the Central Asian countries or informing Baku? How are such US initiatives perceived in Central Asia?

Central Asian experts shared their insights with Caliber.Az.

Kyrgyz analyst Mederbek Korganbayev has said that Washington's aforementioned intentions raise many questions.

"Currently, there is virtually no significant trade or economic presence of Americans in Central Asia, and there never really has been. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US pursued primarily political goals in Central Asian countries, which involved creating and funding NGOs under their control, so-called independent media outlets, and pro-Western public movements. Americans have always aimed to influence the civil society in Central Asian countries rather than their economic well-being. Perhaps, any potential plans by the US to establish new alternative logistical routes are driven by Washington's desire to reduce China's growing influence in the region. The US seeks to shift the balance of power in its favour and create obstacles for China. The development of China and its cooperation with Central Asian countries is portrayed in the US media as Chinese economic expansion," the political analyst noted.

As is known, construction began on the Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China railway in 2024.

Korganbayev added that this seems to irritate Washington. However, he doubts the feasibility of the US project to build new transportation routes without involving or bypassing China and Russia.

"Geography trumps both politics and economics. No matter how much the Americans might wish, they cannot alter the trade and economic dynamics in Central Asia. Currently, Central Asian countries are firmly tied to Russia and China for both exports and imports. The Americans are across the ocean and have little to offer Central Asia beyond military-technical and political cooperation," he noted.

He noted that such an approach by the US is likely to be met with disapproval by the Central Asian countries.

"As mentioned earlier, it all comes down to geography. There's no need to reinvent the wheel. The Americans are proposing new transport routes through Armenia, which already raises doubts. Why isn’t the US considering that relations between Baku and Yerevan remain tense? How can they talk about an onshore trade route through Armenia? The West is providing the Armenian military with weapons, attempting to provoke a new armed conflict through Armenia and destabilizing the situation in the South Caucasus. Is it logical?", he added.

Kazakh political analyst and economist Atbek Aitmatov has said that the US has perhaps for the first time revealed its true objectives and plans for the post-Soviet area within the context of its hostility toward Russia and China.

“The US has clearly developed a new strategy for political influence in Eurasia, but it appears to be both clumsy and, I would argue, offensive to the regional countries. This strategy crudely manipulates the interests of the peoples of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. According to the US approach, the concept of the Silk Road and the Middle Corridor, which runs from China to Europe, should be revised to align with Washington's interests. Why has the US assumed that Central Asian countries are dependent on China? It seems Washington fails to grasp the Central Asia’s strong ties with both China and Russia. Most importantly, what is Washington advocating? It is standing for altering the primary transportation routes of the Silk Road and redirecting them through the turmoil of Middle Eastern conflicts. How does the US propose to ensure the security of such routes? It seems to be nothing more than demagoguery and populism,” he added.