What should the US do about escalating Middle East tensions?

The article from The Financial Times provides a detailed analysis of the escalating tensions and conflicts in the Middle East, focusing on the recent violence between Israel and various Iranian-backed groups. The author highlights how the region's complex dynamics make it difficult to distinguish between action and reaction, with each side perpetually responding to provocations from the other.

In the wake of an errant Hezbollah attack on a Druze village in the occupied Golan Heights, Israel's air strike killed a senior Hezbollah commander, followed by the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. These incidents have exacerbated the already volatile situation, leading to concerns about further escalation, especially between Israel and Hezbollah, and potentially between Israel and Iran. The writer notes that months of military exchanges along the Israel-Lebanon border have already displaced thousands of people, underscoring the human toll of these conflicts.

The writer stresses that the Gaza ceasefire talks seem unlikely to succeed given the current state of affairs. Even before the recent assassinations, Israel and Hamas were at an impasse regarding the extent of any cessation of hostilities and the acceptability of Israel's military presence in Gaza. The prospects for a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah or even direct conflict with Iran remain high, with significant regional and global implications.

The article highlights four key recommendations for the US to manage the situation. First, the Biden administration should persist in calling for a Gaza ceasefire, leveraging Israel's lack of military rationale for continuing the war and its renewed focus on other fronts. Second, the US should encourage Israel to pursue a diplomatic solution in southern Lebanon, as a war with Hezbollah would likely be detrimental given its extensive rocket arsenal. Third, the US should press China to influence Iran towards a limited response to Haniyeh's assassination and advocate for a measured Israeli response. Finally, the US should continue to support the creation of a political alternative to Hamas, working with Saudi Arabia to promote peace and stability.

The writer also advises against cutting off arms to Israel, arguing that such a move could weaken US influence and potentially exacerbate the situation. Instead, maintaining strong US backing for Israel is crucial to deter Iran and its proxies from escalating the conflict. The article concludes by suggesting that the US may need to reconsider its stance on arms provision to Israel to better control their use and avoid being drawn into another war while already stretched thin.