Why dismissing the Houthis would be a dangerous mistake

Contrary to popular perceptions, Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement—officially known as Ansar Allah—remains a force that cannot be dismissed when assessing regional and maritime security. The Red Sea has become the world’s most endangered chokepoint, and for nearly two years the Houthis, together with their operations in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa and the nearby Gulf of Aden, have turned the area into the most hazardous waters for seafarers, despite attempted interventions by some of the world’s strongest powers.

Yet, the Houthis have not been deterred. As the Diplomatic Courier argues in their latest article, the failure lies in the international coalition’s flawed strategy, even though its own economic survival depends on keeping those critical trade maritime ways open. Effective strategy requires knowing the adversary, but little has been done to grasp what would actually stop the Houthis from launching attacks.

By the time so-called deterrence operations by the international community were underway, the Houthis were already achieving their main objectives: global visibility and undeniable relevance.

Instead, the paper contends, international actors should have opted for compellence—forcing behavioural change—rather than just deterrence. But counter-Houthi operations largely backfired, emboldening the group and deepening their resolve.

The result is a continuing threat not just to regional order but especially to maritime security.

Although Washington announced a ceasefire with the Yemeni group in May 2025 and assured the world the Houthis would halt ship attacks, the strikes continued. Just two months later, they sank two more vessels in the Red Sea. Their assaults on Israeli territory also persisted, the most recent occurring on September 24 on a shopping center, which triggered a devastating retaliatory strike by Tel Aviv on Yemen’s capital.

This exposure illustrates dynamics that similar insurgent groups worldwide are surely watching closely:

First, global attention can be captured by targeting ships with relatively limited repercussions.

Second, sinking ships with cheap, widely available autonomous systems is often more effective than striking with costly advanced weaponry.

Third, maritime attacks offer a direct path to status. The Houthis were responsible for nearly half a million deaths before they turned to attacking ships, but remained obscure beyond the Middle East. After hijacking the GALAXY LEADER in November 2023, however, they became a globally recognized force capable of large-scale disruption—showing other groups that violence at sea can make you matter.

The economic aspect of this type of warfare has also tilted in their favour. Supplied with advanced weapons, mainly from Iran, the Houthis have been able to launch $5,000 drones against naval vessels, forcing Western fleets to expend $5 million interceptors in response. That financial disparity gives the Houthis a decisive edge, which is surely being noticed by other rebel groups around the world.

The group’s rise has also ended its relative anonymity. Even though the Houthis were responsible for almost half a million deaths in the region before the outbreak of the latest cycle of violence in the region, they were relatively unknown on the global area. Today, however, major powers such as Russia and China, regimes like North Korea, and militant groups from Al Shabab to others are actively engaging with them. Even the United States, despite branding the Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization, has publicly negotiated with them. Maritime violence has thus elevated the Houthis into a recognized actor on the world stage—a precedent that could inspire other groups chasing legitimacy.

The danger is that others are learning these lessons, steering maritime conflict toward greater violence. The article recalls the recent US maritime operation in the Caribbean, where seventeen people were killed and three suspected drug boats from Venezuela destroyed. Though the context highly differs, it highlights how destructive violence at sea is becoming increasingly common once more.

Given this trajectory, the Diplomatic Courier calls for states to appoint ambassadors-at-large for maritime affairs—officials tasked with addressing the growing spectrum of incidents, from piracy and smuggling to terrorism and hybrid aggression. Advocating for freedom of navigation, maritime peace, and sustainable management of oceans, the piece concludes, would not only reduce insecurity at sea but also reinforce the prosperity of the global economy as a whole.

By Nazrin Sadigova