Why MAGA could face identity test in Republican succession battle Rubio, Vance driven by different beliefs

The 2028 US presidential election may still be three years away, and a turbulent midterm election looms in the meantime. Still, speculation is already swirling within the Republican Party about who will succeed President Donald Trump, who has shaped and dominated the GOP for nearly a decade now.

When Trump clinched a second term in November 2024, many political observers assumed Vice President JD Vance would be the natural successor. For a while, that assumption held weight but Vance made a notable leap in polling just last month as a potential GOP frontrunner for 2028.

The vice president has faded somewhat from the spotlight, while Marco Rubio has taken center stage due to serving simultaneously as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, the first person to hold both posts since US political heavyweight Henry Kissinger. An article by The National Interest dives deeper into the dynamics between these two individuals with each other, the president and the Republican voters.

With control over the State Department, National Security Council, and oversight of agencies like USAID and the National Archives, Rubio has earned the informal moniker “secretary of everything.” The nickname, incidentally, dates back to Trump’s first term and was initially used derisively to describe his son-in-law Jared Kushner, whose broad White House portfolio ranged from prison reform to Middle East diplomacy.

At White House meetings, Rubio now holds a place of prominence. Trump appears to genuinely enjoy his company. Meanwhile, Vance—long seen as Trump’s presumed successor—is notably absent. In Trump World, where optics and media visibility are barometers of favor, the article argues that Rubio is clearly on the rise. With three years still to go, nothing is certain—but Rubio’s emergence as a major power broker has placed all other contenders on unsteady footing.

Comparatively, Rubio’s background aligns him with the Republican establishment. A product of Washington’s inner circles, he was once a protégé of the late Sen. John McCain—a staunch neoconservative and early Trump critic. Rubio has consistently aligned himself with the hawkish wing of the GOP, and that continues to reflect in the officials he surrounds himself with.

Once viewed as strengths, Vance's ties threaten to derail his path

By contrast, Vance has carved out a distinctly different image. A Marine Corps veteran and Yale Law School alum, Vance brands himself as an anti-interventionist more concerned with domestic cultural issues than foreign entanglements. This stance places him closer to the core of Trump’s base, which is deeply skeptical of foreign wars and overwhelmingly isolationist in orientation.

Despite his résumé, Vance is seen as something of an outsider within Washington. His political rise is closely linked to Peter Thiel—the controversial tech billionaire and longtime Trump backer—whose network includes figures like David Sacks and Elon Musk. This so-called “PayPal Mafia” was instrumental in boosting Vance during the 2024 campaign, elevating him above the rest of the VP shortlist.

But that tech-world connection may now be a liability. Trump and Musk had a very public falling-out shortly after the 2024 election, and the rift has had ripple effects across the administration. As Musk’s allies have fallen out of favour, so too has Vance, who is increasingly viewed as “Musk’s man” in the White House.

Other Musk-aligned figures, such as David Sacks—Trump’s crypto policy czar—have also seen their influence wane in the wake of the feud. As Trump distances himself from “Muskworld,” the article suggests that those with close ties to it have suffered a loss of standing, even if unofficially.

This may explain why Vance has largely retreated from public view in recent weeks. Like Sacks, Vance appears to be steering clear of the ongoing Musk-Trump conflict, perhaps hoping to wait out the storm and re-emerge when tensions subside.

The Musk dispute isn’t Vance’s only recent break with Trump. During planning for “Operation Midnight Hammer”—a series of US airstrikes targeting Iran—Vance aligned with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard in opposing the strikes, citing unclear strategic goals. Gabbard’s dissent was high-profile, and Vance’s support for her marked a notable departure from Trump’s hardline stance.

"Secretary of Everything" Rubio

In a now-infamous Oval Office meeting marked by Trump’s trademark theatricality, a reporter asked if the president would endorse a Vance candidacy for 2028. Trump, clearly irritated, refused to commit. Instead, he looked toward Rubio—seated conspicuously next to Vance—and praised the secretary’s potential as a future presidential contender. Since that moment, Vance has all but disappeared from public view, while Rubio’s stock has continued to rise.

Trump has clearly made moves to tamp down assumptions about Vance’s ascension while positioning Rubio as a potential successor—granting him broader responsibilities and increased media exposure. Rubio has become not just a cabinet member, but a trusted confidant.

An often-overlooked figure in this power dynamic is Susie Wiles, Trump’s White House Chief of Staff. Known as the “Ice Maiden” by some, Wiles is a seasoned Florida political operative who once worked closely with Rubio. Since her elevation in the West Wing, she has reportedly used her influence to ensure that Rubio was given a sweeping portfolio—further reinforcing his ascent.

Rubio’s rising influence has also translated into policy wins. Trump has increasingly embraced Rubio’s worldview, including an assertive foreign policy stance toward Russia and a more aggressive posture on Iran’s nuclear program—both departures from the non-interventionism favoured by Vance and Trump’s earlier rhetoric.

All signs suggest that the true dark horse for 2028 is not Vance but Rubio. However, the article's author warns that MAGA die-hards could face a bitter dilemma as the movement born as a rebellion against the GOP elite may soon be led by someone with deep establishment roots. Whether that paradox can sustain a winning coalition—or fracture the Trump base—remains to be seen.

By Nazrin Sadigova