Why Xi Jinping is back in North Korea—and what’s at stake

Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s rare visit to North Korea underscores Beijing’s attempt to recalibrate its relationship with Pyongyang as regional tensions intensify and North Korea deepens ties with Russia, BBC reports.

Xi arrived in Pyongyang on June 8, his first visit since 2019, in what analysts describe less as a symbolic show of friendship and more as a calculated effort to restore leverage over a strategically vital but increasingly unpredictable neighbour.

China and North Korea have long described their relationship as “forged in blood”, rooted in the Korean War. But in recent years, mistrust and diverging priorities have strained ties, particularly as Kim Jong Un has accelerated his nuclear and missile programmes while expanding military cooperation with Moscow.

Beijing’s core concern is maintaining stability along its northeastern border while avoiding escalation that could draw it into crises triggered by Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. At the same time, China is wary of North Korea drifting further into Russia’s orbit following closer coordination between Pyongyang and Moscow since the war in Ukraine.

North Korea’s growing military alignment with Russia, including reported arms transfers and troop deployments, has unsettled Beijing, which fears diminished influence over Kim’s regime. China remains North Korea’s primary economic lifeline, with bilateral trade rising sharply last year, and has recently resumed transport links in an apparent effort to draw Pyongyang back into its sphere.

Xi’s engagement also reflects broader strategic calculations. While North Korea’s actions complicate US alliances with South Korea and Japan, Beijing is cautious that deeper trilateral military coordination could ultimately strengthen US-led regional containment.

China has avoided directly confronting Pyongyang’s nuclear programme, instead favouring diplomatic engagement and limited pressure. Analysts say a hardline stance could push North Korea further toward Russia, reducing Beijing’s leverage.

For Kim, the relationship remains equally pragmatic. China provides essential aid and diplomatic backing, even as Pyongyang seeks greater autonomy and diversified partnerships. Yet analysts note that North Korea remains heavily dependent on Chinese economic support, leaving it little room to alienate Beijing entirely.

Xi’s visit therefore reflects a fragile equilibrium: mutual dependence without mutual trust. Both sides appear intent on preserving the relationship, not out of alignment, but out of necessity.

By Aghakazim Guliyev