Will Yerevan's pro-Western shift lead to Moscow's breaking point? Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

The U.S.-Armenia Strategic Partnership Charter and Armenia's pursuit of EU membership may soon become crossing points that push Moscow to its limits, according to several experts analyzing the document and recent statements from Yerevan. One of the key provisions of the charter involves the creation of a special commission between Yerevan and Washington to monitor dual-use goods, many of which are vital for trade between Armenia and Russia but are also subject to sanctions.

Another potential risk stems from Armenia’s active efforts to join the EU. This pursuit, some Russian politicians argue, places Armenia in a difficult position with Moscow, as Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and enjoys significant privileges within the organization. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk and Security Council Secretary Dmitry Medvedev have already indicated to Yerevan that it cannot continue balancing its relationships with both the EU and the EAEU without facing consequences.

In an interview with a Caliber.Az correspondent, Doctor of Economic Sciences and Professor at St. Petersburg State University, Stanislav Tkachenko, noted that the comments of Russian and foreign experts on the interpretation of the Armenian-American Charter, as well as attempts to predict where this document could lead Armenia and the entire South Caucasus region, have become a widely discussed topic.

"The range of assessments is extremely broad," noted Professor Stanislav Tkachenko, "ranging from viewing the charter as a mere declaration with no real consequences, to the assertion that a new era in the history of the South Caucasus is beginning, as Armenia will become a foothold for the U.S. and the EU in pursuing their policies in the region. In addition to signing the charter, which includes 'military articles' involving the training and retraining of Armenian military personnel and law enforcement, as well as border monitoring, Yerevan has also announced the commencement of its EU membership application process. This represents a sharp shift from Armenia's long-standing strategy based on cooperation and assistance from Russia.

From my perspective, the idea of joining the EU, as well as Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan's visit to Washington, his talks with outgoing Secretary of State Blinken, and the document they signed, have become symbols of political support for the current Armenian government, a token of gratitude from Brussels and Washington for Yerevan's decision to move 'away from Moscow.' This is an extremely dangerous path, and there is already a growing belief in Yerevan that the image accompanying the charter and the EU membership talks are damaging Armenia's interests in the region and throughout Eurasia," the professor noted.

According to him, it is no coincidence that in recent days, high-level political contacts between Moscow and Yerevan have intensified.

“On January 17, Prime Minister Pashinyan called Russian President Vladimir Putin to provide his own interpretation of Armenia’s intentions. Then, on January 21, Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan announced his plans to visit Moscow. I believe these actions are a reaction to the clear statements made by the Russian leadership regarding Yerevan’s unfriendly course. Indeed, in recent years, the volume of Armenian-Russian trade has nearly tripled, largely due to the two countries' membership in the EAEU, as well as Armenia's role as a mediator in Russian trade with the outside world, including with sanctioned goods. The growth rate of Armenia’s economy and the increase in its foreign trade have set records for the post-Soviet period, and the main reason for this is cooperation with Russia. Losing access to the Russian market and facing sanctions would be catastrophic for Armenia's economy. Today, neither the EU, the U.S., nor the G7 countries can replace Russia as a partner.

Therefore, the issue of red lines that Yerevan may cross by continuing to flirt with Western capitals is far from trivial. Moscow hopes that this ‘pro-Western course’ is merely an attempt to mitigate discontent within Armenian society, which was sparked by the defeat in the Karabakh conflict. I believe that Russian patience has not yet run out, and Moscow is still willing to wait a little longer, hoping that Yerevan will soon return to a friendly and allied policy toward Russia, as well as toward the EAEU and CSTO. However, if this does not happen, the consequences for the Armenian economy and its statehood could be highly unfavourable,” said Tkachenko.

Russian political scientist and economist, Director of the Institute of the New Society Vasily Koltashov believes that if Armenia establishes stricter controls over the sanctioned goods being sent to Russia, as outlined in the signed charter with the U.S., this will lead Moscow to respond to such unfriendly policies by limiting Armenian goods' access to the Russian market.

"The fact that Armenia is still in the EAEU will not prevent the deterioration of economic relations, simply because Yerevan’s distance from Moscow has reached a sufficiently significant phase. Creating artificial obstacles in the supply of goods from Armenia to Russia and vice versa could provoke a very serious negative reaction from Moscow," noted the political scientist.

Moreover, in his opinion, the draft law on Armenia’s EU membership is a fairly standard document.

"Of course, this means that Armenia will continue to distance itself from Russia and the EAEU, and its membership in this union is temporary. However, for now, it can be said that Yerevan has not yet crossed the final red line on this issue. Discussions and intentions to join the EU, especially with an undefined border, are one thing; a formal exit from the CSTO and EAEU is another matter entirely. Pashinyan has not yet crossed Russia’s line of patience, but he is teetering on the edge, and one wrong move could cause relations between Armenia and Russia to deteriorate drastically.

The question of how Russia will act if this final line is crossed is a complex one. Armenia is geographically distant from Russia and lacks a shared border. However, Russia may begin to explore measures of influence on Armenia through Georgia. If, for example, Georgia continues to pursue a more independent policy from the US and the EU, strengthening its economic and political ties with Russia, and responds positively to Moscow's proposals, Armenia could find itself isolated from the EU and other global powers, losing its strategic significance and appeal to the West. This is the risk Armenia should be wary of," emphasized the political analyst.

According to him, Armenia is likely to continue “fantasizing” about its dream of joining the EU without being able to make any real progress on these plans.

“Whether Armenia joins the EU or not is ultimately decided in Tbilisi. If Georgia continues to strengthen its ties with Russia and responds to Moscow’s requests for influence over Yerevan, Armenia risks finding itself in a hopeless situation. And as soon as Pashinyan dares to sever this fragile bond with Russia, everything could collapse – from the national currency’s exchange rate to the overall economic growth, proving just how reckless Armenia's idea of joining the EU really is," emphasized V. Koltashev.

According to Russian political analyst Vladislav Gerdin, Yerevan has already fallen into the trap of its own initiatives, and soon we may witness Pashinyan’s frantic attempts to extricate himself from the tangled political and economic contradictions.

"The thing is, Moscow has, on the one hand, already grown accustomed to Yerevan’s flirtations with various political centres of power in the West and Armenia’s shifting political stances – these were present even before Pashinyan, with Serzh Sargsyan creating similar dilemmas for Moscow. However, back then, it was quite clear that Armenia did not seek to cross Russia’s red lines. Sargsyan was very cautious about Moscow's concerns and was ready to reverse his course when necessary. Pashinyan, on the other hand, has gone much further – in recent years, he has shown a rebellious streak, clearly irritating Moscow. But so far, these actions have mainly involved bold statements from Yerevan, and Russia has responded with considerable restraint.

Now, the situation is no longer about populist statements but about concrete actions that could harm Russia’s economic indicators and are certainly not friendly. Yerevan’s attempt to establish a joint commission with the United States to monitor the flow of sanctioned goods into Russia from Armenia will likely provoke a response from Moscow. While Moscow may hold back its reaction to Armenia’s flirtation with the EU – since there's still a long way to go and many uncertainties – the issue of controlling trade flows is different. If Armenia truly moves forward with such agreements, Moscow will immediately raise the question of Armenia’s membership in the EAEU, and that is when difficult and turbulent times will begin for Yerevan," concluded Gerdin.