Pakistan's Palestine conundrum

The Foreign Policy journal has taken a closer look at the crossroads that Pakistan faces as the country is witnessing widespread public support for the Palestinian cause and even the Hamas militant group, while their political ambitions have been aimed at rapproaching the West and Arab allies, following former PM Imran Khan's cold shoulder approach. The journal lays out why the eager support of Palestine might lead Islamabad to clash with the US. Caliber.Az reprints this article.

"Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, pro-Palestinian protests have proliferated across Pakistan. Large rallies held by Islamist parties and civil society have drawn support from across the political spectrum. This reaction is expected in a nation rife with anti-Israel sentiment and Islamist groups with strong mobilization power that champion the Palestinian cause. Government officials haven’t held back, either: On Sunday, interim Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza.

But this public response presents a conundrum for Islamabad. With many Pakistanis unhappy about state repression and the economic crisis, Islamabad benefits politically from the masses directing their ire toward an external grievance. However, this public venting, if it becomes more hostile, risks upsetting Islamabad’s relations with key Western and Gulf partners.

Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership has fueled public anger in recent months by struggling to curb inflation and by cracking down hard on the opposition. In August, the government arrested and jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan, arguably Pakistan’s most popular politician. The protests offer an especially important safety valve. [In this regard, Pakistani officials did themselves no favors when they arrested some people participating in pro-Palestinian protests in Islamabad after they displayed images of Khan.]

Yet Pakistan must be careful. Since Khan—a strident critic of the West—was ousted from power in a parliamentary no-confidence vote last year, officials have sought to improve relations with the West, mainly for economic reasons. The European Union and United States are top export destinations and potential sources of economic aid. Washington exerts influence over Pakistan’s key multilateral donors, including the International Monetary Fund.
Protesters have already started to move beyond expressions of solidarity with Palestinians. Some demonstrators have taken a more hostile stance against the West. At a Sunday rally in Karachi held by Jamaat-e-Islami [JI], one of Pakistan’s largest religious parties, JI leader Siraj-ul-Haq warned that 'we will lay siege to the US Embassy in Islamabad' if US President Joe Biden 'continues to support Israel.' Further escalations in the war could intensify such sentiment.

Other protesters have openly embraced Hamas. Last weekend, Khaled Meshaal, who leads Hamas’s diaspora activities, appeared via video at a massive protest in Peshawar hosted by Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam-Fazl [JUI-F], a party that served in Pakistan’s most recent ruling coalition. JUI-F head Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who has proclaimed the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel a 'historic success,' vowed to send aid to Hamas and insisted that 'we are ready to join the fight.' On Saturday, Rehman held an in-person meeting with another Hamas leader, Naji Zaheer.

These developments could worry not only the West but also Pakistan’s Arab partners, which don’t trust Iran-aligned Hamas. Islamabad recently disclosed that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, already key Pakistani energy suppliers, have pledged to invest $50 billion in Pakistan. This is why the country’s military, which enjoys influence over hard-line religious parties, could eventually urge them to dial down their activism.

The silver lining for Islamabad is that the war has put further Israeli normalization agreements on ice. After the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized relations among Israel and several of its Arab neighbors, Pakistan was reportedly pressured to recognize Israel. That pressure was expected to intensify if close ally Saudi Arabia followed suit—a prospect that is now unlikely anytime soon. Although Pakistan has a history of informal engagement with Israel—cultural activities, intelligence sharing, even a 2005 public meeting of their foreign ministers—Islamabad refuses to recognize Israel until there is a Palestinian state.

Pakistan’s commitment to the Palestinian cause isn’t merely rhetorical; it has provided financial backing to Palestinian governments—including Hamas—and humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians, including a new package announced this week. A long, brutal Israeli assault on Gaza would take the heat off Islamabad on the normalization front. But it would also complicate Islamabad’s attempts to balance the domestic political benefits of anti-Israel sentiment with the risks it could pose to key foreign-policy interests".