Armenia’s human capital in danger as population shrinks, says expert

Armenia must urgently address its demographic challenges, or the country’s population could fall below 2.5 million by 2040 if current trends persist.

According to Caliber.Az, citing Armenian media, economist Suren Parsyan highlighted the urgency of the situation.

Parsyan explained that Armenia experienced a temporary population boost over the past two to three years due to the relocation of foreigners and the resettlement of Armenians from Karabakh. However, this increase proved short-lived: most relocated foreigners have left the country, and approximately 20,000 of the 100,000 Karabakh settlers have already departed Armenia.

“People are leaving because they cannot secure decent living conditions and do not feel safe. Armenia’s main resource is its people. Yet we are facing severe demographic challenges: an ageing population, declining birth rates, and high levels of emigration,” Parsyan stressed.

He also noted the importance of human capital in the region for ensuring national and regional security. For context, Azerbaijan’s population has reached 10 million, Türkiye is approaching 100 million, and Iran exceeds 80 million residents.

Armenian media report that from January to August 2025, 20,437 children were born in the country, 1,439 fewer than during the same period in 2024 (21,821). At the same time, deaths rose by 138 compared to the previous year, reaching 17,210.

By Tamilla Hasanova