Armenian analyst: US may officially open Trump Route in South Caucasus in 2026

The United States is expected to increase its activity in the South Caucasus next year, with a formal opening of the so-called Trump Route possible, according to Armenian political analyst Suren Sargsyan.

Sargsyan, head of the Armenian Institute of American Studies, suggested that the initiative could be timed to coincide with Armenia’s parliamentary election campaign in June, Caliber.Az reports per Armenian media.

He warned that US priorities in Armenia and the wider region should be understood in the context of global politics rather than viewed solely through the prism of local concerns.

“Many tend to see the Trump Route through Armenian eyes. In reality, it is not just about Armenia, Azerbaijan, or regional transport links. It is part of a large-scale project aimed at connecting Central Asia to Europe while bypassing Russia and reducing China’s influence in the region,” Sargsyan said.

The analyst explained that the project primarily concerns the export of energy resources from Central Asian countries to European markets, supporting Europe’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian supplies and transit routes.

In this context, the Trump Route represents just one of several alternative corridors for pipelines, transport, and trade. Armenia’s role is limited to being part of this broader geo-economic framework rather than solely facilitating links between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan.

Sargsyan noted that Central Asian states are already developing alternative routes to European markets that avoid Russia and China, a strategy repeatedly discussed at different levels in recent years.

He forecast that US engagement in the region will intensify in 2026. “We saw the signs of Washington’s renewed focus in the South Caucasus throughout 2025, including in Armenia, and this trend is set to continue,” he said.

High-level US visits are anticipated, with Sargsyan indicating that a senior American official could visit Armenia as early as February, though he did not disclose a name. Media reports suggest the visitor could be US Vice President J.D. Vance. Historically, the most senior American officials to visit Armenia have been the Secretary of State and the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

There is also the possibility of formally inaugurating a 43-kilometre section of the Trump Route. Sargsyan suggested that Armenian authorities may wish to do so ahead of the elections to leverage the event for political purposes. He added that the active phase of the process could begin in January or February and continue throughout the year.

Overall, analysts expect increased US investment, joint business projects, and a significant rise in American presence in the South Caucasus, signalling a new chapter in Washington’s regional engagement.

By Aghakazim Guliyev