Baerbock's unspoken interest in the South Caucasus Experts' take on the issue in question

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited Azerbaijan on November 4. She had every chance of being included in Baku's list of persona non grata because of her anti-Azerbaijani statements. She is one of the main European officials trying to talk down to Baku, thereby pursuing the policy of double standards that the EU is so fond of in relation to Azerbaijan. The main generators of such EU policy are Paris and Berlin. Therefore, Azerbaijan does not have any special illusions regarding Baerbock; rather, it wonders what else the German foreign minister needed in Azerbaijan.

According to the official version of Berlin, Baerbock’s mission is political – to act as a dove of peace, to promote reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and also to patch up German-Azerbaijani relations, which have crumbled through the efforts of the same Annalena. In Baku and Yerevan, she called on Armenia and Azerbaijan to return to the negotiating table.

“That is why it is so important that a new round of negotiations take place as soon as possible,” said the German Foreign Minister on November 3 in Yerevan after a meeting with her Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan. She repeated almost the same words at a press conference with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. Baerbock spoke about ensuring peace, stability and security in the South Caucasus region and bilateral Azerbaijani-German relations at a reception with Ilham Aliyev. In general, nothing new, except that in Baku, Baerbock finally officially recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, but at the same time refused to meet with refugees [ethnic Azerbaijanis] from Armenia [who were expelled in late 1980s], preferring dinner in a Baku restaurant.

So, what is behind the visit of the German foreign minister to the South Caucasus region?

In a conversation with Caliber.Az, German political expert, senior researcher at the Institute of World Trends (Potsdam) Alexander Rahr noted that Germany abandoned energy cooperation with Russia, it destroyed the energy alliance with Moscow and therefore Berlin needs other energy sources. Azerbaijan is doubly important for Germany in this regard.

“Azerbaijan is a corridor country through which Europe, including Germany, expects to receive Caspian oil and gas. That is why, even despite constant criticism, Germany will not take sharp anti-Azerbaijani positions. For example, statements made by Baerbock after Azerbaijan’s operation in Karabakh. You need to understand why this was done. Germany, like all of Europe, has a policy of values: first, human rights, a humanitarian line. Therefore, in connection with the operation of Azerbaijan, Germany began to express concern.

Perhaps, according to Baku, it goes beyond the usual diplomatic rhetoric. One could even say that in this situation, Berlin partly sided with Yerevan. Armenia, according to the Baerbock political party of Greens has found itself infringed upon in its rights. Although from the point of view of international law, this is not so. Thus, Germany is trying to encourage Armenia, but objectively does not want to spoil relations with Azerbaijan, because it needs Azerbaijani gas and oil.

At the same time, it is objectively necessary to understand that the main task, the goal of the EU and the United States is not to somehow turn Armenia or Azerbaijan in their direction, but to isolate Russia. This is the main goal in the Caucasus. And the EU will go towards this through certain proposals to both Armenia and Azerbaijan,” A. Rahr said.

At the same time, according to Talgat Ismagambetov, a researcher at the Institute of Philosophy, Political Science and Religious Studies of the Science Committee under the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, candidate of political sciences, history may turn out differently, and not even China may be the beneficiary of the Belt & Road Initiative, the concept of the Silk Road. And the fight for this will begin very soon.

“Azerbaijan was in the right place at the right time. Because no matter what path we take - southern or northern, we still end up in Azerbaijan. The South Caucasus is one way or another increasingly closely connected with Central Asia, and this geopolitical connection is extremely interesting to Western players. The wind is blowing towards Baku – you can’t say anything here, this situation is undeniable,” the Kazakh political expert said.