Bloomberg: India cuts Russian oil to near four-year low

India’s imports of Russian crude are expected to decline to their lowest point in almost four years at the start of 2026, Bloomberg reported.

Market participants say that in January, shipments may drop to around 600,000 barrels per day, a steep fall from the record 2.1 million barrels per day imported over the summer. The sharp reduction is attributed to pressure from the administration of US President Donald Trump.

Even so, these volumes remain higher than the levels seen before the war. Traders believe imports could rise again as new intermediaries appear on the market and Russia seeks alternative channels to maintain exports. During his recent visit to New Delhi, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged “uninterrupted fuel supplies” to India in an effort to retain one of Moscow’s key customers.

Negotiations on a trade agreement with the United States are progressing slowly, and as a result, New Delhi is not rushing to fully adjust its policies to suit Washington’s demands. Experts note that while sanctions have created difficulties, they are not strong enough to completely break the supply chain as long as Russian crude remains cheaper than oil from the Middle East or the United States.

Meanwhile, India’s state-owned companies are reducing their purchases due to concerns about possible sanctions. By contrast, several private refiners are exploring new arrangements and alternative suppliers. Analysts suggest that imports could partially rebound later, supported by the use of a shadow fleet, shifts in suppliers, and deeper discounts offered by Russia.

A critical uncertainty is the stance of Reliance Industries, which until recently had been the largest buyer of Russian oil. The company has suspended supplies for its export-focused refinery and has pledged to comply with sanctions, but it maintains an active agreement with Rosneft. This deal could potentially push imports back up by as much as 350,000 barrels per day as early as January.

By Tamilla Hasanova