Bloomberg: Russia tests US’s resolve in Black Sea truce with SWIFT sanctions demand

The Kremlin is testing US President Donald Trump’s willingness to pressure European allies into easing sanctions on Russia, particularly regarding the reconnection of the Russian Agricultural Bank (RSHB) to the SWIFT international messaging system. 

This move comes as part of Moscow’s broader strategy to assess how far Trump is willing to go in negotiating sanctions relief in exchange for participation in a truce brokered by the US in the Black Sea region, Caliber.Az reports, citing Bloomberg.

Russia has demanded that RSHB be reconnected to SWIFT, a critical platform for international financial transactions, as a condition for accepting a ceasefire in the Black Sea. The decision to target RSHB, one of Russia’s largest state-owned banks, is seen as a strategic test of Trump’s ability to engage both the US and Europe on sanction adjustments, according to people close to the Kremlin. With the European Union holding jurisdiction over SWIFT, which is headquartered in Belgium, Russia is effectively seeking to gauge the US president’s influence over European partners.

Putin’s government hopes that success with the SWIFT issue could pave the way for a gradual easing of the broader sanctions regime. The EU had sanctioned RSHB and other major Russian banks in 2022 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, at a recent summit in Paris, European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, reaffirmed their stance on intensifying sanctions rather than easing them.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia had agreed to Trump’s proposal for a truce in the Black Sea, building on the 2022-2023 grain export deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey. Peskov also highlighted that SWIFT was an integral part of the original agreement, suggesting that the EU's reluctance to reconnect Russian banks is a reversal of previous commitments.

Despite the EU’s resistance, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that some of Russia’s conditions, such as the demand for SWIFT access, fall under European jurisdiction. Rubio added that the US would evaluate Russia’s requests before determining the next steps.

Political analyst Pavel Danilin stated that the Kremlin is using this situation to test Trump’s response, aiming to see how he will navigate the promises he made during his administration regarding sanctions relief. Russian officials were reportedly calm about the issue during recent talks in Saudi Arabia, where they reiterated that their participation in the ceasefire depends on the removal of sanctions affecting key Russian financial institutions.

While Ukraine has agreed to observe the ceasefire, Russia’s condition for the truce, specifically the reconnection of RSHB to SWIFT, has put the ball in Trump’s court as the next phase of the negotiations unfolds.

By Khagan Isayev