China arms sales cement its economic, security ties in Africa

China transferred or sold more arms to countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) than its rival the US over the past decade, as Beijing cemented its economic and security cooperation with the continent, a new study shows.

The Washington-based Atlantic Council think tank report said that between 2010 and 2021, China accounted for 22 per cent of the US$9.32 billion in total arms exports to the SSA countries south of the Sahara, South China Morning Post reports.

At US$2.04 billion, Chinese sales were second only to Russia, and almost three times the amount exported to the region by the US, according to the study based on data compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Russian arms exports made up 24 per cent of the total, at US$2.24 billion, while US sales over the decade came to just 5 per cent, with US$473 million, said the report by macroeconomist Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou and consultant Naomi Aladekoba, both from the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Centre.

The researchers also found that between 2017 and 2020, China exported almost three times as many arms to SSA than the United States.

“It is interesting to note that China’s arms exports to SSA reached an all-time high of US$423 million in 2013, which coincides with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative,” the report said.

Mohseni-Cheraghlou and Aladekoba said that more than 60 per cent of Chinese arms exports to the region went to five countries, with Tanzania taking the most at 19.6 per cent. Nigeria was second, with 13.5 per cent, and Sudan third, on 12.6 per cent.

Cameroon took 11.2 per cent of the total and Zambia accounted for 6.22 per cent of arms purchases from China, they found.

“These countries also are home to some of China’s largest investment and construction projects in SSA, pointing to a growing linkage between Beijing’s economic interests and security concerns in the region,” their report said.

To illustrate the overlap between China’s security and economic interests in Africa, the study focused on Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation with vast amounts of energy resources and several seaports on the Atlantic coast.

The report said that between 2006 and 2020, Nigeria attracted more than 13 per cent of all Chinese investment and construction in sub-Saharan Africa, making it the largest recipient of Chinese capital and projects in the region.

In 2021 alone, China accounted for 34.4 per cent of Nigeria’s arms imports, compared to the US and Russia at 2.67 per cent and 6.49 per cent, respectively. In the same year, Nigerian military spending reached US$4.5 billion, a 56 per cent increase on 2020, the study said.

While China has long been known to export mostly light arms to Africa, the report said Beijing had started selling more advanced weaponry to Nigeria, highlighting the country’s centrality to China’s geopolitical calculations in the region.

Mohseni-Cheraghlou and Aladekoba said Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine could have opened up new opportunities for Chinese military influence in Nigeria.

“International sanctions in the wake of that invasion may limit the benefits of Nigeria’s 2021 agreement with Moscow for military equipment and training – and could mean an increase in Nigeria’s arms imports from China,” their report said.

The researchers said US sanctions on many Russian defence contractors are forcing Nigeria to consider alternatives.

“China is clearly the default option as the growing relationship between China and Nigeria in the past few years has also made China the top arms exporter to Nigeria, surpassing Russia in arms exports for two consecutive years,” they said.

The report covered sub-Saharan Africa, excluding the far larger North African market, made up of countries like Egypt, Morocco and Algeria that import many more weapons than most SSA countries.

David Shinn, an expert on China-Africa relations at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, said the US has never been a significant source of arms for sub-Saharan Africa. Instead, it is an important supplier to Egypt and Morocco.

Russian arms go principally to Algeria and Egypt, while US sales are primarily to Egypt and Morocco, Shinn said. “China is an important source for Algeria, but well behind Russia and the US for all of North Africa.”

Shinn said Chinese arms exports to Africa are driven by their low cost, improving but sometimes still questionable quality, ease of operation, and relatively low maintenance.

“The key factor in SSA is low cost compared to other sources, including Russia, the primary exporter to all of Africa,” he said.

Francois Vreÿ, a research coordinator at the Security Institute for Governance and Leadership in Africa at the Faculty of Military Science, Stellenbosch University, said there had been a visible decline in arms imports to the continent in the past few years.

China had also diversified its African portfolio through the China-Africa partnership, making arms just one of its export domains, he said. “I know that primary weapons systems are not the norm, therefore many arms transfers are in smaller systems.”

Observers have said China’s growing ambition for a global role is behind is entry into the security domain – from military to intelligence and policing on land and at sea.

“The more [China] builds military outposts on the African coast, the more one will see Chinese independence and arms transfers becoming more calibrated to maintain security, not fight wars,” Vreÿ said.

He said it was also of interest that China is edging towards the Atlantic and Africa’s West Coast. “If arms transfers are the attraction for partner countries then one can expect them to be used to cultivate cooperation and concessions in a region showing little Chinese military inroads.”

Vreÿ said it was also important to remember that China and Russia do not factor in possible domestic use as a constraint on arms sales, unlike many other countries.