EU plans "stress tests" for critical infrastructure in response to climate change risks

The European Union is considering implementing "stress tests" on critical infrastructure, including railways and electricity grids, to prepare for the escalating demands of a warming planet. This initiative, part of a broader climate response policy set to be unveiled next year, aims to bolster the resilience of Europe's infrastructure against the growing number of natural disasters linked to climate change, according to The Financial Times.

Three EU officials familiar with the proposal revealed that the "stress tests" would simulate scenarios in which temperatures rise by up to 4°C, a move that would assess the capacity of energy, health, and other vital sectors to withstand extreme heat. One senior official called the stress testing a "sensible effort" for member states, while another deemed it a "no brainer" that could spark discussions on how to strengthen infrastructure in the face of climate extremes.

Europe is set to experience an increase in temperatures of at least 3°C by 2050, relative to pre-industrial levels, according to the European Environment Agency (EEA). In its March assessment, the EEA warned that Europe faces heightened risks of heatwaves, prolonged droughts, wildfires, infrastructure failures, blackouts, and severe health and economic consequences. The last two years alone have seen the EU incur billions of euros in damages from catastrophic floods and forest fires, such as the 2023 floods in Slovenia, which cost the country 16% of its GDP.

Leena Ylä-Mononen, executive director of the EEA, highlighted the importance of preparing infrastructure for long-term climate impacts. "We are talking about infrastructure or really major industrial installations — they are meant to last for decades," she told the Financial Times. She also suggested that testing infrastructure against a 3°C warmer scenario should be explored, given the expected devastating consequences of such a shift.

France has already taken steps in this direction, becoming the first EU member state to initiate national stress testing. In October, the French government began consultations on evaluating the resilience of critical infrastructure in the event of a 4°C rise in temperatures.

The proposed "stress tests" align with the goals of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, where countries committed to limiting global temperature increases to well below 2°C, aiming for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, the global temperature is on track to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels on an annual basis this year, highlighting the urgency of climate adaptation strategies.

Europe's geographical features and ocean currents make it more vulnerable to climate change compared to other continents. "What is clear is that whatever scenario for the globe is assumed there has to be an add-on applied [in Europe] because the effects are expected to be worse here than anywhere else," an EU official said.

The EU's climate adaptation plans may also include strengthening early warning systems and encouraging private investment in projects that enhance the bloc’s resilience to extreme weather. This proactive approach comes in the wake of devastating floods in Spain’s Valencia region in November, which claimed the lives of at least 231 people, underscoring the urgent need for greater preparedness across Europe.

By Vugar Khalilov