Experts warn: Without trust, US-Iran diplomacy faces deadlock

Despite at least eight rounds of talks over the past year, diplomacy between the US and Iran has failed to prevent the current war engulfing the Middle East, according to an analysis by The National.

As the conflict intensifies, experts warn that any future negotiations must be built on a fundamentally different foundation to succeed.

Analysts say both sides need a “face-saving exit” to de-escalate the conflict. Tehran is being urged to make significant concessions on its nuclear programme, ballistic missiles, and regional proxies, while the Trump administration must abandon its aggressive “video game” approach and demonstrate that it can be a trustworthy dialogue partner.

“To have a final, all-encompassing resolution to this conflict, there are three major files that need to be addressed: the nuclear file, the ballistic missiles file and the proxy file,” Karim Bitar, lecturer in Middle East Studies at Sciences Po Paris, told The National.

However, the prospects of an agreement appear increasingly remote. Tehran is seeking minimal concessions, while US President Donald Trump and Israel seem intent on leveraging the conflict to maximise military gains. Diplomatic efforts in recent days have sent conflicting messages, oscillating between claims that talks are underway and outright denials.

The National notes that this pattern of “bluff diplomacy” has become characteristic of US foreign policy under the Trump administration.

“Both sides remain in a maximalist phase, convinced that time and controlled military escalation favour their position,” said Randa Slim, director of the Middle East programmes at the Stimson Centre in Washington. “Tehran appears to be betting on war fatigue setting in among populations in the Gulf and in Israel. Meanwhile, the US administration continues to believe that sustained pressure will sufficiently weaken the regime, pushing it towards a deal as a means of ensuring its survival.”

Tehran has consistently maintained that its ballistic missile programme and support for regional proxies are non-negotiable, framing them as core elements of its defence strategy. Yet the country has shown flexibility on nuclear issues, signalling willingness to discuss uranium enrichment and enhanced oversight.

During talks in Geneva on February 26, Oman reported “significant progress,” with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi hailing a “breakthrough that has never been achieved before." That progress, however, was overshadowed by immediate US and Israeli military action.

Iranian sources told The National that previous US attacks during nuclear talks reinforced hardline skepticism about Washington’s trustworthiness.

“Negotiations in principle are not rejected, but Iran says any process must be built on credible guarantees that war will not be repeated against it by the US and Israel,” the source said.

Experts believe the intensity of the current war could open limited room for Tehran to make concessions, particularly if these allow it to preserve the regime.

“Iran is also, to a lesser extent, ready to make concessions on the ballistic missiles dossier. And to not completely stop its support to its proxies, but to progressively make sure that these proxies no longer act aggressively,” Mr Bitar said.

On the US side, escalation continues, with Mr Trump deploying additional troops and threatening further strikes if Iran “fails to accept the reality of the current moment."

The analysis concludes that rebuilding trust will be a formidable challenge.

“A mutually hurting stalemate will probably be the key factor in bringing both sides to the negotiating table,” Ms Slim said. “But I do not believe either party has reached that stage.”

By Sabina Mammadli