Firstpost: Russia believes in India, eyes to provide it with gas jointly with Iran

There is no doubt that Russia and Iran have shaken the world with their groundbreaking gas alliance which is likely to benefit many countries including India, Dmitry Kosyrev argues in his latest think piece for the Firstpost.

Caliber.Az reprints the article.

At first, it sounded like a pipe dream, but then more and more information began to seep into the Russian media: Moscow and Tehran are actively discussing the project of an international gas hub in the Persian Gulf. The buyers are supposed to be India, first of all, Pakistan too, of course, but then there are several other nations that may profit from that.

It all began in May, when the Russian energy minister Alexander Novak visited Iran and signed a stack of documents there. Only some of these papers have been mentioned in the media. But now we learn, from Iranian oil minister Javad Owji, quoted by the Tasnim agency, that the two nations are planning to create such a hub in the province of Busher, and that Qatar and Turkmenia are to take the key part.

There were several points raised immediately by the Russian experts. First, the similar hub in Türkiye, also with Russian participation, just had to be mentioned. The reason is simple. The Turks are not supposed to be happy, if they suddenly get competition. With their Russo-Turkish hub, that nation is becoming a key supplier of South-East Europe, and will try to keep it that way. So the gas have to go somewhere in Eastern direction.

Will China be happy? Maybe not much so. But then, it only has to finalise agreements with Russia on yet another Trans-Siberian pipeline, and be the only consumer of the product. Besides, the LNG tankers from the gas fields in the Russian North have found their way to the ports in China’s South, so that settles it. The question of Turkmenia being China’s important gas supplier seems to be no problem, either.

Second problem is, if there are gas-rich Qatar and Turkmenia on the horizon, what Russia has to do with that project? But then the experts looked closer at the papers signed by Novak in May, and saw mentions of gas swaps there. The thing is, Iran is big, and there are mountains in its middle. So the Northern Iran, bordering Russia across the Caspian Sea, is also much better off getting gas and other things from Russia and Turkmenia, not from its own South.

In any case, in the end all gas coming to Iran will legally become Iranian, and sold out as such, if no other arrangement is in store.

The experts mentioned the well-known trans-Afghanistan pipeline projects, highlighting India’s agreement to receive gas at its borders without acquiring any stockholding. Well, Iran is not Afghanistan, and there is that general conviction that it will become a more and more lucrative partner for all the region, sooner or later.

The question of “later” is important, since the Iranian side is talking about three years’ time span, while some Russians are saying that 10 years are more like it. So we are talking about some relatively distant future, the brave new world of tomorrow.

And if we are sure of anything about that new world, we know that India will, in any case, be very much around tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, and will need energy, more and more of it. India is and will be important. Why, only yesterday I was participating in a TV show, where the ideal composition of the future UN Security Council was been discussed. And the idea was, that today only four nations are big and important enough to have the right of a veto in that council, and that’s China, the US, India and Russia.

But, getting back to our hub, here we have yet another problem. Neither Russia nor Iran own technologies for building a big station for producing LNG from the pipeline gas. Well, a small station we can do, but for the rest of it, other participants have to give a helping hand. But then, anything may happen in the coming years.

The hottest discussion point is about Iran being Russia’s natural competitor on all kind of gas markets. Why aid that competitor? The best answer is, Russia’s “oil diplomacy” with its another competitor, Saudi Arabia, says that reaching agreements seems to bring more profits than fighting each other.

All in all, there is a headline to one of analytical materials on that subject, saying that Russia and Iran are shaking the world with their gas alliance. Shaking the world is what we love to do.

Finally, the money seems to be no problem, Iran is paying to Russia its oil and gas debts rather easily, and nobody looks worried about that side of the story.

And to think that a decade or two ago both Iran and Russia were supposed to be economies in tatters, rogue states and so on.

As I’ve already mentioned, we discussed all these problems yesterday on TV. We also had a nice chat with a couple of fellow Orientalists over coffee after the show. “Wait till we get the results of the Prime Minister’s visit to Washington on June 22”, said one of us. “That’s when our dear audience will tear us to pieces for advocating gas supplies to India, while it’s getting all these US military technologies and the rest”.

“But we were talking about the year 2033 or something,” was the answer. “Do you believe that America will be in the same shape in 2033 as it’s today? While India will surely sit safely with all the American military hi-tech by that time. And Russia won’t really mind it”.

“Right, boys, but what if we’ll start thinking about resuming gas supplies to Europe in ten years’ time?”

“There’ll be no Europe to speak of by then. Europe will go green and reject gas, oil, industries and food, meat at the very least”.

“What, no decent sikh kebabs in London? I don’t believe it.”

“Look, why is it that the best things in TV shows are been said already off the air?”