FT: Europe faces security crisis as Russia escalates threat, US turns inward

A security crisis is emerging across Europe, with two dangerous factors set to combine in 2025: the escalating threat from Russia and growing indifference from the United States under a potential second term of Donald Trump.

In response, European nations must urgently bolster their defences, with Germany, Europe’s largest economy, playing a pivotal role in securing the continent's future, Caliber.Az reports via Financial Times.

"Russia's economy is on a war footing… Danger is moving towards us at full speed," warned NATO’s newly appointed Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, last month. He called for NATO to ramp up defence production and adopt a "wartime mindset" in the face of mounting threats. NATO’s Supreme Commander in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, also echoed these concerns last April, stating that “Russia shows no sign of stopping. Nor does Russia intend to stop with Ukraine.”

As the war in Ukraine continues, Russia has shown resilience, with losses that have now reached an estimated 700,000 troops killed or wounded. However, analysts caution that Russia's military is larger than it was at the war’s outset, producing “huge numbers of tanks, armoured vehicles, and ammunition,” according to Rutte. This, combined with European countries' inadequate manpower and equipment, places them at a disadvantage in the event of a protracted conflict.

"European countries lack the manpower and equipment to engage in a war of attrition," said Rutte, pointing to the British and German armies, which have seen their numbers dwindle. In early 2024, the British army had just 73,520 personnel, the lowest since 1792, while Germany’s military stands at 64,000.

NATO planners believe the alliance is currently about one-third short of the military capacity needed to deter Russia effectively, with particular shortages in air defence, logistics, ammunition, and secure communications equipment. While NATO members are committed to spending 2% of their GDP on defence, there is growing pressure to raise this target.

"There is a real need for increased procurement across Europe," said NATO analysts, warning that a nominal target of 3% may be insufficient if the United States significantly reduces its military presence in Europe. According to Elbridge Colby, a key defence adviser to Trump, China now represents a higher priority for the US than Russia, with "forces needed for Europe" potentially being redeployed to Asia.

The withdrawal of US military backing, experts warn, could make Russian aggression more likely. "The withdrawal of America’s military backing for NATO is the surest possible way of turning the possibility of Russia attacking beyond Ukraine into a probability," said Keir Giles of Chatham House.

Poland, located at Europe’s eastern edge, is already responding to the threat by planning to increase its defence spending to 4.7% of GDP in 2025, a stark contrast to the relatively modest spending levels in larger Western European economies such as Germany and France. While Germany’s military spending barely hit 2% of GDP last year, the country’s fiscal position, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of just over 60%, affords it the opportunity to spend more on defence.

Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany's Christian Democrats, who is expected to become the next German chancellor, is a staunch advocate for increased defence spending. “Germany could transform the continent’s security landscape if it relaxed its constitutional limits on deficit financing and accepted the need for common EU debt to finance European defence,” Merz stated.

However, the prospect of a rearmed Germany remains a sensitive issue for some of its neighbours, particularly Poland and France. “Even 80 years after the Second World War, some neighbours will feel queasy about German rearmament,” said one senior European official. "But in the interests of their own security, they need to get over it."

By Aghakazim Guliyev