Georgian analyst: EU mission in Armenia - attempt to oust Russia from the region Caliber.Az interview with Archil Sikharulidze

Caliber.Az had an interview with Archil Sikharulidze, a Georgian political scientist, and founder of SIKHA Foundation think-tank.

- To what extent do you think relations between Yerevan and Baku are currently far from normalisation?

- I think the situation is quite difficult, especially for the Armenian side, as it was forced to give up positions in the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation. Of course, Armenia does not want to give up what Azerbaijan demands, which has brought the situation to a standstill. I doubt that without the involvement of external players, such as Türkiye or Russia, anything will change. But as long as Russia is busy with Ukraine issues, it is hard to say what will change in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement process in 2023. So we can hardly expect any breakthroughs, but rather negotiations that will lead nowhere.

- Can we say that Moscow is losing some of its influence in Armenia?

- If we consider the fact that Russia is the only country protecting Armenia's interests, it is unlikely. America and the EU cannot protect Armenian interests, especially when we are speaking not just about some idle talk but real action. Armenia simply cannot go anywhere. It is, you could say, its fate. It is forced to accept Russia as a strategic partner, and Russia will remain the strongest player in Armenia.

Yerevan's strategic mistake was to allow Russian troops on its territory. It was a miscalculation that, in fact, resulted in Armenia being unprepared to take a hit from Azerbaijan. And when unjustified expectations failed to materialise, Armenia decided that Russia had betrayed it. Although Moscow has not said that it will interfere in any way in the confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. At least I have not heard that.

- Iran has become very active in the current regional processes. Won't this lead to more escalation in the region?

- The fact is that no matter how much Iran has stepped up, it does not have much influence in the region. Tehran may use certain methods to influence some processes, to use religious levers, but I would not say that IRI has any real influence in the region. And most likely the South Caucasus will be divided into zones of influence between Türkiye and Russia.

- The EU will send a new mission to Armenia. What objectives do you think the EU is pursuing in the South Caucasus and what tools is it using for this purpose?

- European politicians are often divorced from reality, they have believed in their values and that international global politics is as they imagine it in the EU. Although this is not the case. But, on the other hand, for the EU it is an attempt to squeeze Russia out of the region. However, Europe will not be able to replace Russia as it has no troops in the region. There is not even a willingness to accept this army. And the South Caucasus is a territory that should have an army in the first place, it is a necessity. Not just ranting about values and cash injections. The only way the EU is trying to influence the region is through financial resources. And the European observers essentially mean nothing, they are people engaged in observing the situation, nothing else.

- Will the South Caucasus turn into an arena for a new confrontation between Russia and the West?

- I don't think so. There is already a firm representative of the West, NATO in the South Caucasus - and that is Türkiye. Ankara is playing its own game in the matter, so it cannot be seen as a collective West. When we talk about the West, we have to understand that the only one who has real military power there is the US, but America has no forces, no weapons, and no military bases in the region. So I think it is premature to say that the West can provoke something in the region.