How Pakistan-Saudi defence pact reflects tectonic shift of alliances in West Asia

Riyadh welcomed Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif this month with the rare royal purple carpet, an honour once extended to world leaders like US President Donald Trump. Traveling with him on the September 17 visit was Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, underscoring that the kingdom values its security partnership with a nuclear power that retains robust military strength.

At the heart of the trip was the signing of a “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement” (SMDA), declaring that an attack on one would be treated as an attack on both. A senior Saudi official told Reuters it covers “all military means,” while speculation arose that it involves a nuclear umbrella—a potential shift in the regional balance of power.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, speaking to the country’s Geo News on September 18, was asked if Saudi Arabia would benefit from Pakistan’s nuclear shield. He affirmed, “What we have, our capabilities, will absolutely be available under this pact.” He added that Pakistan, which first tested nuclear weapons in 1998, is a “responsible nuclear power” whose standing “has never been challenged.”

Given that 81 percent of Pakistan’s weapons imports are Chinese, an article by The Cradle points out that the pact implicitly draws Saudi Arabia closer to China’s military orbit, intentionally or otherwise. This marks a contrast with Riyadh’s long-standing reliance on US arms, training, and security assurances.

The deal followed, by just two days, a joint emergency meeting of the Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) after Israel’s September 9 airstrikes on Qatar—a key Gulf ally and non-NATO partner—without meaningful US pushback, reinforcing a sense that western guarantees are unreliable and selective.

Mushahid Hussain Syed, Pakistan’s former information minister and Senate Defence Committee chair, told The Cradle that Washington’s tilt toward Tel Aviv has left Arab allies sidelined, pushing them to explore other options.

New alliances replace old ones in West Asia

In the same Geo News interview, Asif stressed that Muslim states must build a collective military shield to address shared threats and repel external dangers, reminding viewers of western roles in fuelling regional turmoil over the decades.

“A novel security framework for the region appears to be taking shape, focusing on Global South nations such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, whereas the Indo-Israeli Axis, previously supported by the US, now finds itself significantly diminished,” Syed said.

According to him, the agreement stands out as a diplomatic success for Pakistan, placing it in a pivotal role within West Asia’s evolving security landscape, particularly among Muslim nations.

He explained that three dynamics shaped the deal: Arab dissatisfaction with the US, Israeli manoeuvres in Iran, Qatar, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, and Pakistan’s recent victory over India in May.

Analysts warn that the agreement could produce ripple effects for India and Israel, despite official claims it targets neither. Many argue Riyadh’s real focus is countering Iran and Yemen’s Ansarallah government.

Dr Abdul Rauf Iqbal, senior scholar at Islamabad’s National Defence University (NDU), told The Cradle that India views the pact with unease since it formalizes Saudi–Pakistani defence ties, potentially pulling Riyadh into South Asian conflicts, especially over Jammu and Kashmir:

“It represents a setback for Prime Minister Modi's foreign policy, potentially leading to Saudi involvement in a prospective Indo–Pak conflict. Furthermore, future Saudi investments in Pakistan's Gwadar port and economic corridors would challenge India's regional influence and initiatives such as the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC).”

He added that Riyadh’s tilt toward Pakistan reflects a wider alignment of Muslim powers and could pressure Tel Aviv to adjust its Gaza campaign. It also complicates Israel’s position by inserting Pakistan—a firm opponent of its expansionism—into the politics of West Asia.

By Nazrin Sadigova